Cubs' dramatic 2021 trade deadline now boils down to the success of just 3 players

Unpopular at the time, Jed Hoyer's massive fire sale at the 2021 trade deadline, in hindsight, was the right move. The decision to not re-engage with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo the following offseason proved even more sound as all three have struggled to varying degrees since leaving the Chicago Cubs.

But the recent DFA of Alexander Canario has re-focused folks on the return in those 2021 deals and, to be frank, it's safe to say we expected more given the sheer amount of talent that went out the door that July. Now, any long-term value is tied up in three (potentially four) players left in the organization with the 2025 season right around the corner.

Pete Crow-Armstrong represents the highest short-term upside of the group after a strong showing in the second half of last year. His defensive prowess is clear - but it remains to be seen if he can be a sustainable league-average bat for an entire season. If he can, he'll be an All-Star-caliber player capable of piling up Gold Glove Awards in center field for years to come.

Fellow outfielder Kevin Alcantara got his first taste of big-league action late last summer and, as things stand right now, looks like the next man up in case of an outfield injury for the Cubs. If he can translate his tools into production and replicate his success in limited action at Iowa last year (.292/.378/.469) he and PCA could be two-thirds of a potential long-term outfield mix given both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are both only under team control through 2026 and Kyle Tucker will hit free agency at year's end.

From there we move to right-hander Daniel Palencia, who was pumping absolute gas in the Cubs' spring training opener on Thursday, hitting 101 MPH on the radar gun at Camelback Ranch. He battled injuries last year that definitely affected his mechanics, but if he can come into the season at full strength, mixing in his overpowering fastball with a slider-splitter combo effectively, he could be a real difference-maker in Craig Counsell's bullpen.

All that being said, he hasn't done it consistently to this point and has a lot to prove. The stuff is undeniable, but he has to be able to be effective with it if he's going to provide long-term value to the Cubs. Remember, Palencia came to Chicago in the Andrew Chafin trade with the Athletics - a move that, while overlooked at the time, could still pay off for the club.

The longest shot feels like Caleb Kilian, the other prospect who came over with Canario in the Kris Bryant trade. The right-hander, who turns 28 in June, has made only 13 appearances with the Cubs at the big-league level and has struggled with control in a big way, averaging more than six walks per nine in limited MLB action and nearly four per nine at Triple-A.

This is a big season for Kilian. If he can't stay healthy and show real strides, the Cubs have enough pitching depth to move on from him. I think it's a coin-flip, at best, that he'll play any sort of meaningful role for Chicago at this point. We'll definitely have more clarity on his situation by the end of the season.