Cubs avoided disaster when they signed Dansby Swanson instead of this top free agent

The star-studded free agent shortstop class of the 2022-23 offseason mdae it one of the most exciting hot stove seasons in recent memory. With Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts all hitting the open market, teams in need of a shortstop (such as the Chicago Cubs) had their pick of the cream of the crop.

Of course, we all know how that played out. Facing what felt like a 'must-have' situation, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest free agent guarantee in franchise history (seven years, $177 million) while Turner headed to Philadelphia, Correa joined the Minnesota Twins, and Bogaerts headed west to join forces with a young Padres team on the rise.

And thank goodness he did. This season, Cubs fans have had their gripes with Swanson - namely for his lack of timely hitting with runners in scoring position - but he's still been an above-average bat and elite defender worth 2.3 bWAR on the season, not to mention a key presence in Chicago's clubhouse.

Padres searching for answer with Xander Bogaerts while Dansby Swanson continues to provide value on a daily basis for the Cubs

Looking to Southern California and the Bogaerts situation, Cubs fans should take solace in the fact that things could be much, much worse. The longtime Boston staple joined the Padres on an 11-year, $280 million pact - worth more than $100 million (not to mention four years) more than the deal Jed Hoyer gave Swanson. It's a deal that looks worse with each passing day in San Diego, who are on the hook for another eight years after this season.

Bogaerts - once an elite offensive presence - has bottomed out offensively and hasn't even been a league-average bat in terms of OPS+ since his first year with the Padres. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, using Baseball Reference WAR, Swanson has provided more than three times the value of Bogaerts (6.3 bWAR to 2.0 bWAR).

A huge component of that is Swanson's defense, which makes him a perennial Gold Glove contender at shortstop. At the time of the signing, the Cubs felt that his glove gave Swanson a higher floor than someone like Bogaerts, who was definitely more of an offense-first profile. Now that his power has completely evaporated in San Diego, the four-time All-Star's deal looks like one of the worst contracts in the league.

With both teams in the hunt in a loaded National League playoff picture heading into the summer, both Swanson and Bogaerts will have a chance to make their mark in 2025. But trends over the last year-plus suggest that only one of the two is going to help their club move the needle in a positive way - and it's not the one folks may have predicted when they signed their new contracts two winters ago.