Cubs 2026 arbitration projections quietly put Justin Steele back in the spotlight

The Chicago Cubs are in the middle of a playoff run, hoping to find the prevailing advantage of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS. Of course, that doesn't stop procedural Major League Baseball events from happening. MLB Trade Rumors released the projected arbitration salaries for the offseason, and for the Cubs, it's a reminder that Justin Steele can once again be factored into the team's plans.

Steele's 2025 season was wiped away after the fourth start of his campaign, suffering an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. The expectation is that Steele won't be ready for Opening Day of the 2026 season, but should return at some point during the first two months of the season.

Spencer Strider's recent timeline could be a rough estimate for Steele next season. With the Atlanta Braves in 2024, Strider underwent Tommy John surgery after his second start of the season on April 5. Strider made his return this season on April 16. If Steele is on a similar path, that places his return to the Cubs likely in the middle of May.

Justin Steele’s name resurfaces in 2026 Cubs arbitration plans with big implications

Steele is by far the most impactful Cubs player eligible for arbitration this offseason. Given the surgery, Steele's projected salary is at $6.55MM for 2026, the same amount he earned during the 2025 season. Chances are, this is the most straightforward case the Cubs have this offseason.

Interestingly enough, Eli Morgan, another Cubs pitcher who spent most of the season on the IL, is projected to get a raise to $1.1MM next season. Given his injury-riddled season, Morgan retained his minor-league option for 2026, and that likely has the Cubs' interest in keeping him around next season.

Javier Assad is in line for a hefty increase with a projected salary of $1.9MM. Assad earned $793K this season, and while most of his season was spent on the IL, when healthy, he remains a valuable piece to the Cubs' pitching staff.

Reese McGuire also seems like a clear non-tender candidate for the Cubs this season, projected to earn $1.9MM next season. With Carson Kelly entering the second year of a two-year deal, a healthy Miguel Amaya, and Moises Ballesteros likely on the bench, it seems that McGuire will be the odd man out at the catcher position this offseason.