An inconsistent, but important arm could be an X-factor for the Cubs next year

The 2025 Chicago Cubs season opened with high expectations for hard-throwing right-hander Ben Brown. He cracked the team's Opening Day starting rotation, but was ineffective almost immediately, pitching to a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings of work in the first month.

Things didn't ever really get better from there. He posted a sub-5.00 ERA in only one month, and was nowhere remotely close to manager Craig Counsell's circle of trust by the time the regular season wrapped up. He pitched two scoreless innings in the NLDS, but it's hard to call his 2025 performance anything but a disappointment.

Brown finished the year ranking in the bottom quarter of pitchers in xBA and xERA and near the very bottom of the league in hard-hit and barrel percentage - and the bottom one percent in average exit velocity. The numbers on the back of the baseball card weren't any more encouraging (-1.6 bWAR, 5.92 ERA, 10.2 H/9, 65 ERA+) - almost an across-the-board decline from his strong rookie showing the year prior.

Ben Brown can't be counted upon as a reliable starter at this point

Assuming Jed Hoyer delivers and the Cubs accomplish their biggest offseason goal and procure a front-end starter, Brown seems destined for the bullpen in 2026, perhaps pairing with Colin Rea to give Counsell a pair of swing men to turn to, capable of multi-inning relief outings or spot starts, as needed. He's got one minor league option remaining, so depending what the rest of the offseason brings, maybe Chicago keeps him stretched out as a starter at Triple-A.

Here's what Andy Martinez over at Marquee Sports Network had to say about Brown's role in a recent piece:

Brown is a bit of an x-factor in this situation. He’s flashed the ability to be a starter at times, but also has had large swaths of struggle in that role. The right-hander has primarily a two-pitch mix, something that could be a tantalizing bullpen piece. Teams always prefer to stretch out pitchers, though, to start the year, and that might mean Brown is still in a starting role.

There's no situation where Brown is locked into the rotation heading into camp. Even without another addition, it's already a deep group (that lacks a true, ace, but the depth is there): Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Rea and Brown could all draw starts for the team in 2026.

I think his path to the big leagues, at least in the short-term, is as an overpowering two-pitch reliever. He really got hurt this year going through batting orders for the third time. Limiting him to shorter bursts where he can let it eat and attack hitters might be the best plan for both Brown and the Cubs.