The (difficult) case for the Chicago Cubs continuing to rely on Ben Brown

I shall now attempt a defense of Ben Brown. Degree of difficulty: 9.7.

The name of Ben Brown is anathema among Chicago Cubs fans, and it’s easy to see why. If Brown were having the kind of season he had as a rookie in 2024, the Cubs would right now be on far more solid footing in the NL Central race.

His 6.04 ERA is nearly double his 3.58 ERA of one season back. He came out of spring training as a rotation option of such repute that his was the first name called out of the pen in Tokyo on Opening Day when Shota Imanaga left after four innings. Brown promptly gave up three runs and the game.

Brown’s been given 15 starts – entering Tuesday that’s as many as Imanaga – but in seven of those his Bill James Game Score has fallen below 50, four times below 30. For those unfamiliar with Game Score, 50 is pretty bad and 30 is awful.

For those reasons, Craig Counsel has approached Brown warily, using him only three times since a late June flareup against the Cardinals.

That’s the indictment. But I didn’t come here to bury Brown; I came to praise him. And Cubs fans may want to consider what follows carefully because with Soroka gone and the returns of Taillon and Amaya both pending, the Cubs may NEED Brown. (My emphasis.)

Making a case in support of Cubs right-hander Ben Brown

The guy has good – not overpowering but good -- stuff. His 95.8 MPH fastball velo is in the 84th percentile for all MLB pitchers. He has a 9-foot delivery extension; that’s 77th percentile. His 29.1 percent and 27.6 percent chase and whiff rates are both well above average.

Those are good attributes to have.

Here’s the striking number. Based on all his stats, Brown’s expected 2025 ERA is 4.43. That’s a fairly stunning point and a half below his actual ERA. If Brown's actual ERA was 4.43, there would be a lot less angst in Wrigleyville right now. What do we make of that? We make of it that Ben Brown has been extraordinarily unlucky this year.

Brown’s basic problem appears to be that his pitches aren’t moving as such as they ought to move. Baseball Savant calculates that Brown’s fastball moves seven inches horizontally with a 13-inch drop; both figures are below the MLB norm. The same is true for his knuckle curve. So he needs more RPMs. That’s teachable.

In fact Brown’s velocity and movement were both better in his rookie season. Why the decline? That’s a question for cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottavy.

The intriguing part is that Brown can be very good. Even in a disappointing 2025, he’s done the following:

• Shut out the Dodgers for six innings on April 12.
• Shut out the Brewers for six innings on May 2.
• Shut out the Reds for six innings on May 31.
• Held the White Sox to one run over five innings on July 27.
• Pitched four strong innings Monday against Cincinnati in relief of Soroka.

I don’t need to recount Brown’s bad side; Cub fans are familiar. But this much seems unavoidable: If the 2025 Cubs are going to make a divisional run, they need Ben Brown.