3 Cubs second-half storylines that will make or break the 2026 season

It was an up-and-down first half for the Cubs, but they managed to enter the All-Star break in a rather solid position. They're 54-42 on the year, leaving them five games back of the Brewers for the NL Central crown but offering them a 3 1/2-game cushion in the NL Wild Card race. With the All-Star break wrapping up, it's almost time for the team to get back to work for the stretch run.

Injuries were, unfortunately, the main storyline around this team in the first half of the campaign - and that will definitely be something to watch down the stretch. But, if the Cubs want to finish the year strong, here's the three biggest storylines that will need to go their way:

Cubs need production from their stars & big moves from the front office

Will Pete Crow-Armstrong be able to avoid a second half slump?

Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been otherworldly in the first half of the season. With 21 homers and 24 steals in 96 games to go along with his characteristic top-shelf defense in the outfield, Crow-Armstrong has already put together 6.0 fWAR and 5.8 bWAR this year. Those numbers are incredible, and put him firmly in the conversation for NL MVP honors heading into the second half.

Impressive as all of this has been, however, it's fair to remember that last year involved a similarly incredible start. Headed into last year's All-Star break, PCA had 25 homers, 27 steals and 4.6 fWAR (3.4 bWAR). Crow-Armstrong seemed to be in the MVP conversation at that point in 2025, too, but faded heavily down the stretch. He hit just .216 with six homers and eight steals the rest of the way, and it would be understandable if fans worried about history repeating itself in 2026.

If PCA were to suffer a similar second-half slump this year, that would surely be a bad sign for the club's playoff chances. After all, this team doesn't have the pitching depth the 2025 club had in order to survive a weakened offense. The good news is that Crow-Armstrong's production seems a lot more sustainable this year. As MLB.com's Jordan Bastian recently noted when looking at PCA's first half, his 2026 season boasts much higher on-base numbers than 2025 ever did.

Will Jed Hoyer be active enough at the trade deadline?

Fans last season were hoping to see the Cubs make significant moves at the trade deadline, but were disappointed by deals that only brought back Michael Soroka and Andrew Kittredge. Kittredge was an asset down the stretch, but Soroka barely even pitched and wasn't the sort of front-of-the-rotation arm fans thought the team needed. This year, the Cubs' needs are even more apparent.

The Cubs are desperate for pitching help in both the bullpen and the rotation, with so many key players from both units on the injured list. Cade Horton is done for the year, Justin Steele won't be back any time soon, Ben Brown remains a question mark, and even Daniel Palencia isn't throwing off a mound yet. That leaves the Cubs without, arguably, their four most impactful arms.

The front office's lackluster approach to last year's deadline apparently drew attention privately from the media and coaching staff, if the latest drama around the team is anything to go by. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has always operated with one eye on the future, so it would be a shock to see the Cubs manage to land someone like Tarik Skubal even if there's smoke connecting the Cy Young winner to Chicago.

Still, there's a number of potentially impactful arms besides Skubal who could be had. Sonny Gray, Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Casey Mize would all be massive improvements to the rotation, and that's only looking at rental arms. Controllable pieces like Reid Detmers and Logan Webb would be even more exciting additions if they can be pried away from their clubs. If Hoyer doesn't swing big this summer, however, it's hard to see how the Cubs will have enough pitching come October.

Can Alex Bregman be who the Cubs are paying him to be?

The Cubs set high expectations for the 2026 season the moment they decided to sign third baseman Alex Bregman to one of the biggest contracts in franchise history. Unfortunately, he's not yet lived up to that deal so far. Bregman is hitting just below league average so far on the season, and the 2.3 bWAR/1.7 fWAR Bregman has compiled to this point in the year is a far cry from the All-Star caliber performance he put together for Boston last year.

Bregman will need to get things back on track if the Cubs are going to have hope of catching the Brewers, much less make some noise in the playoffs this year. Fortunately for fans in Chicago, that seems likely. Bregman finished the first half scorching hot, with four doubles, two home runs, and a strikeout rate of just 12.5 percent over his final nine games before the break.

The veteran third baseman was 21 percent better than league average with the bat by measure of wRC+ during that final stretch of the first half, and if he can carry that uptick in power over to the second half he'll be in a strong position to improve on his numbers. Bregman finished last year with a wRC+ of 125, and if he can be more like the player he was last season in the second half of this one, the Cubs should be well-positioned to make a run.

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