3 Cubs Craig Counsell can't count on heading into the second half of the season

The Chicago Cubs entered the All-Star break in first place by a game over the Milwaukee Brewers. They were arguably playing some of their best baseball of July when they bounced back from an 11-0 loss to take two of three from the New York Yankees to end the first half of the season. However, to keep the good times rolling in Wrigley, it's important to realize there are some guys currently on the roster that Craig Counsell should expect to take a step back in the second half.

Most of the Cubs on this list simply had too good a first half to be expected to continue. While one continues to struggle despite high hopes heading into the 2025 season.

Carson Kelly's career hints his first half with the Cubs is unsustainable

The Chicago Cubs have gotten an insane level of production from the catcher position this season, especially considering that the man who was the backup when the season started has had one of the best starts to a season in his career. That's true even counting Carson Kelly's swoon in May and June.

Kelly has had to step up in the absence of Miguel Amaya, and in July, he's gotten on the same kind of hot streak he started the season with. His surges have allowed Kelly to post a 158 OPS+ so far in 2025. That's 46 points higher than his career high. His 12 homers this season are already the third highest he's ever had in a season over his decade-long career.

It's incredibly unlikely that Carson Kelly has suddenly found some secret. It would be rather foolish for Craig Counsell to expert Kelly's production to be anywhere near what it's been so far.

Chris Flexen already showing signs of regression for the Cubs

One of the most surprising aspects of Chicago's first half is how the team's bullpen has been one of the best in the Majors despite it largely constructed using bubble gum and bailing wire. Chris Flexen is one of those pieces of bubble gum but he's already looking like he's starting to fade.

On the year, the swing man has a sparkling 5-1 record with a 1.47 ERA, however he's started to get tagged a bit harder in his last few outings. Flexen's peripherals have always shown that a fair bit of his success was luck. Over his last six games things have already started to regulate, especially with the first three homers he's allowed all season.

In those six games, he still posted a respectable 3.47 earned run average but his FIP sits at 5.82. In his previous seasons, Flexen has posted more years where his ERA was over 6.00 than under. He's never come close to having a final earned run average under 2.00 and it's unlikely his success will continue at the degree it has in the second half of the Chicago Cubs' season.

Brad Keller's struggles could be sign of what's to come

Like Flexen, Keller's first half of the 2025 season was both surprising and quite useful for the Cubs. It's a safe bet that without the reliever, the team is not in first place right now.

Unfortunately, like Flexen, it's possible Keller has already started regressing. From April 25 to July 2, Keller pitched 30 innings, allowed 26 base runnners, struck out 25 batters and had just one run scored on him.

Staring on July 5, he's allowed runs in two of his last three games but it's more that he's allowing them in bunches while getting hit pretty hard. Against the Cardinals he allowed two homers and 5 runs in just an inning of work. A week later, he allowed another homer and 2 runs in just an a third of an inning.

One thing that can be said of the Chicago Cubs' reliever is that he's gone through a rough patch before and course-corrected. Like Flexen, Keller can still be useful this season but Counsell should expect him to be anywhere near as good in the second half of the season as he has been so far.