2025 NL Central projections show a key Cubs rival is a team on the rise

In a turn of events that's starting to feel all too familiar, the Milwaukee Brewers outperformed expectations last year, won 93 games and dominated the National League Central virtually all year long. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs were, again, pedestrian, winning just 83 games for the second straight season - despite stealing Milwaukee's beloved longtime manager, Craig Counsell, away last offseason.

Over the better part of the last decade, I've seen Milwaukee defy the odds and projections too many times to write them off - even after losing a key piece of their offense in Willy Adames, who departed to San Francisco via free agency. But we're not talking about the Brewers today - we're focusing on the Cincinnati Reds, who could be a dark-horse contender for the division crown in 2025.

The ZiPS projections for the Reds are out - and the message is clear: this team will go only as far as their young budding stars take them. Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5.0 fWAR player Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer constantly talks about needing, and that's a good starting point.

Infielder Matt McClain, who missed the entire 2024 season after finishing fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting the year before, will be a key X-factor for Cincinnati. If he can replicate his strong offensive numbers from 2023, the Reds will have a formidable tandem up the middle. Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino make behind the plate another area of strength for the club.

From there, it's less rosy, though. Hunter Greene broke out last year, but behind him, it's a lot of question marks in the starting rotation - with Nick Martinez the only other starter projected for more than 2.0 fWAR in 2025. The bullpen gets absolutely no love from ZiPS. As a group, Reds relievers are projected for -0.3 fWAR - but there are a number of arms who are decent candidates to defy the odds and be solid arms.

The biggest change in Cincinnati, though, isn't on the 40-man roster - it's the man filling out the lineup card every day in new manager Terry Francona. The Reds lured the two-time World Series champion out of semi-retirement with a three-year deal, hoping he can work his magic with this young ballclub after successful runs in both Boston and, most recently, Cleveland.

His presence alone could wind up being a huge difference-maker for the Reds - and should concern the Cubs. This only emphasizes the importance of Chicago closing out the offseason on a high note: continuing to add to the pitching staff, building out the bench and moving the needle in the right direction wherever possible. This division isn't expected to be anything special and could be close again in 2025. Failing to punch their postseason ticket because of a team like Cincinnati would be a bitter pill to swallow - regardless of the young talent on that roster.