Cubs: Extreme caution must be exercised when it comes to Carlos Correa

Chicago Cubs: Setbacks occur. Is it worth pushing the chips and going all in?

As previously stated, Correa put up an incredible 7.2 WAR last season. While slashing .279/.366/.485 with 26 homers and 92 RBI, you see how defense really is an incredibly important aspect of the game, as his offensive numbers were good but not quite “best in the business”.

The Cubs, meanwhile, return former Gold Glove finalist Nico Hoerner in 2022 – and we’ll get our first look at Nick Madrigal in his new threads, as well. Noerner is an elite defender at second – but with Madrigal and his so-so glove in the picture, he’s probably shifting over to short or into the outfield this year.

There’s no questioning that Correa and Hoerner paired together up the middle would give Chicago one of the best double play combinations in the league. But there are questions about Hoerner’s ability to stay healthy that need to be considered, too. Look. Correa would make the Cubs a better team. But the dollars he’s looking for are hard to swallow for me personally. Instead of adding one guy who can net you 85-90 RBI, you can net yourself 170-180 RBI by signing two offensive weapons for the same price you’d otherwise give just Correa.

You hate to say it, but setbacks are a part of baseball. God forbid an injury occurs (knock on wood) or Correa happens to have a down year at the plate. Then what? All the eggs you have put into one basket spoil and you’re right back where you started, except now you’re down $35 million in payroll and essentially find yourself stuck in a lose-lose situation for any given season that he is tenured with the Cubs. For that type of money, any down year at the plate at all is essentially Jason Heyward 2.0 and then some in terms of contracts. There are just too many risks that go into a mega-signing such as this given where the rest of the roster is right now.

There’s no debating that Correa is an elite defender. The Cubs also have a projected rotation of Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills as four of their starters going in 2022. All of which are right-handed pitchers. Does that mean everything in the world? Well no, but It’s worth noting and giving a reminder that to some degree, due to splits, matchups and what have you, teams are going to continue to stack as many lefty hitters against our starting pitching staff that’s full of righties this year as any team normally would. Not to say that *everybody* will be a lefty this year, but with this in mind, it’s not like everybody will be a righty hitter that’s going to ground out to Correa on every play either.

All I’m saying is, yes, Correa makes this team much better defensively – but, again, he’s not some magical, life-saving pill, either – despite his asking price.

Chicago Cubs: There are more efficient ways to spend money this winter

Offensively? Correa’s projected slash line is just that, a projection. It’s not written in the stars that he will hit .269/.349/.464. However, those are far from MVP numbers offensively. For reference, a player such as Nelson Cruz who has consistently been raking in only around $13-14 million range on average for the past seven years, is projected to slash .263/.339/.504 with 31 home runs and 82 RBIs (seems like a pretty legit DH candidate, no?). Another guy, Eddie Rosario for example, who potentially might only net around $10 million a year as some have him pegged, is projected to slash .258/.303/.452, just 11 points lower in batting average to go along with 20 HR and 73 RBI.

Fun fact: Rosario’s slash over the past five years is .278/.315/.484. He averages 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in per 162 games. Correa for reference? Over the past five years, .277/.357/.484 with 29 home runs and 105 RBIs per 162 game average. Aside from a nod to Correa in the on base percentage department, they have literally been just about identical at the plate since 2017.

Elsewhere, Father Time himself, Cruz, has continued to mash at least 32 home runs for seven years in a row, excluding 2020 due to it being a shortened season. Just as impressively, until last year, when Cruz still had a very respectable 86 runs batted in, he put together a string from 2014 to 2019 where he had no fewer than 93 RBI, breaking the 100 plateau four times in that six-season span.

This is one simple example of how the Cubs can produce much more at the plate. Using the Cruz/Rosario scenario, if contract predictions are at all accurate, you’re essentially getting two guys who combined cost $10 million less than Correa annually and will add an extra 74 runs batted in a year to your lineup, while also giving you even more financial flexibility to sign a closer or a backend starter – all for the price of what just Correa could end up costing alone.

Again, not that you’re sad if you land Correa, there are just so many situations to think about in how that type of money can patch up several areas of the team’s biggest needs. For the type of contract Correa will command, I’m willing to sacrifice some defensive production for a lot more offensive production. You may occasionally have a SportsCenter top 10 web gem. You may even save a game due to a great play. However, you’re simply in a better position to win more games the more runs you score.