Cubs: 2 free agent packages to replace a Carlos Correa signing

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(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /

With the MLB lockout taking longer than we all want, it’s unfortunate for teams like the Chicago Cubs, who had really picked up serious steam before things ground to a halt. Of course, the most notable rumor had the team in the thick of the race for Carlos Correa, although admittedly, there was a gap in the length of what a prospective deal might entail

That’s where talks stopped – leaving us all on the edge of our seats.

There’s no doubt. The Cubs have quite the plethora of funds available after trading Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Craig Kimbrel back in July. Even after bringing in Wade Miley, Marcus Stroman, among others, there’s plenty left in the coffers while still staying under any sort of luxury tax in 2022.

But maybe we should stop and think for a second. Perhaps the best route the Cubs can take isn’t even in that superstar player market. You’re putting a lot of eggs in one basket on a guy like Correa (or anyone who has their eyes on a $300 million deal, for that matter).

The upside isn’t being debated by anyone, really. However, the last thing any team wants is to be stuck paying a player a ridiculous amount of money with little to show for it. Maybe Jed Hoyer will take a slightly safer path forward once the lockout ends, going with the ‘quantity over quality’ approach?

Instead of signing Correa to a deal that’ll cost you a minimum of $30 million annually, what about finding two guys in that $15-18 million AAV range that have proven they can produce just as well on any given season? Correa, far and away, is the best remaining free agent. With above average marks on both offense and defense, he deserves to be the most sought after free agent at this point. But that doesn’t mean he’s the best option for Chicago, a team that’s still trying to get out from under Jason Heyward’s deal that didn’t even hit $200 million.

My theory here is simply pondering what two above-average bats can do for the Cubs’ lineup instead of just one in terms of Correa. If the longtime Astros shortstop can play at an MVP level for years to come, batting .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI with some Gold Gloves sprinkled in, he’ll be worth every penny. However, you could arguably take the same amount of money and bring in two guys like Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario – which makes you wonder which is the best option.

Personally, I believe that approach is a smarter spend, as it fills two spots in the order instead of one. Simply put, the more depth you have, the better your team. There are actually a number of players that have produced more so than Correa has offensively in any given season that will be relatively cheap compared to the former AL Rookie of the Year. With that being said, Let’s take a look at a couple different combinations that actually make more sense than just going after one big fish in Correa.

Cubs: Trevor Story & Kyle Schwarber instead of Carlos Correa

Hear me out. This all comes back to making sense financially if you’re Hoyer and Tom Ricketts. On paper, I understand one’s immediate conclusion of how egregious this might look. However, if you break it all down, it’s not quite as ‘out there’ as you might assume. Simply put, the Cubs have money to spend. Correa’s next deal is widely expected to get at least $30 million annually. How much are Trevor Story and Kyle Schwarber projected to get this winter? Well, it may not be as crazy as you think.

Back in November, an article in Boston came out projecting the potential contract of Kyle Schwarber in order for the Red Sox to sign him. Most have Schwarber pegged for around $15-17 million annually on a two or three-year pact. Considering the monster year he just had, adding Schwarber and another former All-Star instead of Correa could round out the lineup nicely.

As for Story, assuming he gets a fair $20-25 million AAV deal over the course of the next four or five seasons, let’s start doing the math here. Even saying Schwarber hits what he’s personally looking for ($20 million AAV) for likely less than $10 million a year, you get both of these guys – who would deepen the lineup in a major way.

Understandably, Correa’s WAR sat at an incredible 7.2 for 2021. Story, even with a down season at the plate earned himself a mark of 4.2 while Schwarber earned himself 3.2. The latter of which would certainly have a higher number had he not missed 50 games during the season to injury. Though the concern is how well Story will produce away from Coors Field, Wrigley Field is hitter-friendly enough that I’d be willing to roll the dice.

Assuming Schwarber’s production remains anywhere near the same during the time he missed had he not gotten hurt, is it safe to assume a 4.0-4.5 WAR season for Schwarber. If so, you have more value in that combination than you do in just Correa. It sure makes you think, if nothing else.

Cubs: Nick Casellanos, Ryan Tepera, Trevor Rosenthal instead of Carlos Correa

Going back to the well of bringing back a former Cub, instead of a second bat, we add strength to the back end of the bullpen. As many are aware, Nick Castellanos is still a free agent after opting out of his deal with Cincinnati. No doubt, it was a career year for Castellanos, who slashed an impressive .309/.362/.576 and reaching 100 RBI for the second time in his career.

Castellanos’ hot start really stands out, as he put up a .331/.384/.585 line with a 150 wRC+ in the first half of the 2021 season. The veteran outfielder carries a career .364/.401/.727 mark in 177 plate appearances at Wrigley Field. Though Correa is a better defender than Castellanos (even mentioning them in same sentence defensively is a sin), Castellanos has him beat offensively with a career batting line of .278/.329/.486 against. Correa’s .277/.356/.481. The only offensive edge to Correa goes in the on-base percentage department. A glaring weakness however when comparing the two is Correa’s 7.2 WAR in 2021 vs. just 3.2 for Castellanos – even in a career year.

Regardless, Castellanos’ price tag promises to come in far less than what Correa will get. That allows the Cubs to spend that salary elsewhere, specifically the bullpen in this instance. Adding an arm back such as Ryan Tepera gives the Cubs another familiar face who has proven himself at Wrigley Field. More importantly, it helps to patch up a desperate need in the bullpen after it was gutted at last season’s trade deadline.

We’re not done yet, either. You can go bring in a wild card who missed all of 2021 in Trevor Rosenthal. If the right-hander gets back to his dominant ways, he has the potential to be the ultimate steal for any team looking to add a closer this winter. Although he missed 2021, in 2020 Rosenthal posted a 1.90 ERA and 2.20 FIP in 23 2/3 innings of work, recording 11 saves in the process. His best year came in 2015 where he posted 48 saves with a 2.10 ERA en route to an All-Star appearance. Even if he is not a closer moving forward, he still has extremely high potential if his injury is fully behind him.

Next. Cubs legend Jon Lester rides off into the sunset. dark

All in all, Correa is a superstar. It’s understandable to want to go all-in. The excitement that comes with landing a big star and the heightened optimism that it will catapult your team to the top is something we live for as sports fans. But it also has the potential to handcuff your club for years to come if things go wrong – something that’s surely not lost on Cubs fans.

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Cubs: Trevor Story & Kyle Schwarber instead of Carlos Correa

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