Cubs: Trevor Story & Kyle Schwarber instead of Carlos Correa
Hear me out. This all comes back to making sense financially if you’re Hoyer and Tom Ricketts. On paper, I understand one’s immediate conclusion of how egregious this might look. However, if you break it all down, it’s not quite as ‘out there’ as you might assume. Simply put, the Cubs have money to spend. Correa’s next deal is widely expected to get at least $30 million annually. How much are Trevor Story and Kyle Schwarber projected to get this winter? Well, it may not be as crazy as you think.
Back in November, an article in Boston came out projecting the potential contract of Kyle Schwarber in order for the Red Sox to sign him. Most have Schwarber pegged for around $15-17 million annually on a two or three-year pact. Considering the monster year he just had, adding Schwarber and another former All-Star instead of Correa could round out the lineup nicely.
As for Story, assuming he gets a fair $20-25 million AAV deal over the course of the next four or five seasons, let’s start doing the math here. Even saying Schwarber hits what he’s personally looking for ($20 million AAV) for likely less than $10 million a year, you get both of these guys – who would deepen the lineup in a major way.
Understandably, Correa’s WAR sat at an incredible 7.2 for 2021. Story, even with a down season at the plate earned himself a mark of 4.2 while Schwarber earned himself 3.2. The latter of which would certainly have a higher number had he not missed 50 games during the season to injury. Though the concern is how well Story will produce away from Coors Field, Wrigley Field is hitter-friendly enough that I’d be willing to roll the dice.
Assuming Schwarber’s production remains anywhere near the same during the time he missed had he not gotten hurt, is it safe to assume a 4.0-4.5 WAR season for Schwarber. If so, you have more value in that combination than you do in just Correa. It sure makes you think, if nothing else.