Chicago Cubs: Breaking down a no-risk, high-reward Clint Frazier signing

Though he isn’t the big marquee name many Chicago Cubs fans may be holding out for, the team signed Clint Frazier to a one-year deal in a move that can be best categorized as low-risk, high-reward. The 27-year-old was the crown jewel of the return to the Yankees in the Andrew Miller trade in 2016, and the former first-rounder was expected to be a force offensively for years to come in the Bronx.

The story didn’t unfold the way anyone would’ve liked, however, and after five roller coaster years that ended in a disastrous 2021 campaign for Frazier, he was unceremoniously DFA’d and released by the Yankees. Though Frazier has had many lows throughout his career, the Cubs seemed to think a reclamation project was a worthwhile gamble, and it’s hard to disagree with the logic of the deal.

While one-year prove-it deals certainly aren’t going to excite many, it fits the exact mold of what Jed Hoyer meant when he said the Cubs were going to “spend intelligently”. If the Cubs aren’t going to spend massive amounts of money on players that can be cornerstones of a rebuild, then signing players like Frazier to short-term deals is by far the next best option due to the number of avenues it opens for the team.

In all likelihood, Chicago likely isn’t going to be able to compete for the 2022 postseason regardless of who they signed, as the team simply has too many holes for now. As a result, holding back on spending until they’re likely to be more competitive makes sense, and players like Clint Frazier are the perfect candidates to take a flier on.

Chicago Cubs: Consistency will be key for Clint Frazier moving forward

These one-year fliers give the Cubs opportunities to catch lightning in a bottle and then assess their options. If a player is performing well but doesn’t figure into your future, it makes them an easy trade chip. Maybe a young player like Frazier seems to flip the switch in Chicago and works their way into having a role going into the future. Even a player isn’t working out, it’s easy to just DFA them and move on. There’s simply no risk to these one-year deals.

But why does Frazier, in particular, make sense for the team? As stated before, there’s real talent to be accessed with Frazier. He never really was able to find consistent at-bats in the Bronx, as he never played more than 70 MLB games in a season, but he still has had spurts of offensive success.

In 2019, his season with the most playing time, he produced a modest 108 wRC+, with just a 6.8 percent walk rate. However, in the pandemic shortened 2020 season, he increased his walk percentage to 15.6 percent, slugged a career-high .511, and his wRC+ skyrocketed to 149. However, in 2021, despite his walk percentage staying relatively similar, he had by far his worst offensive season due to a massive power drop-off. His ISO dropped by over 100 points (.244 in 2020 to .131 in 2021), and his wRC+ fell all the way to 76.