Chicago Cubs: Predicting what the 2022 starting rotation will look like

Soon, the 2021 season will mercifully come to a close for the Chicago Cubs. But once we shut the door on this forgettable campaign, this team has work to do and a lot of questions to answer before next spring.

What will the lineup look like? How do you plan for an offseason that comes with added uncertainty given the CBA discussions between the MLBPA and league? That will definitely impact the team’s aggressiveness in free agency – as it will with the other 29 teams in baseball. What about the starting rotation, which has cratered following the trade deadline?

Nobody, with a possible exception of Kyle Hendricks had that great of a season this year. Even the ‘Professor’ himself is experiencing a down year by most standards. Adbert Alzolay is finishing the season in the bullpen, Alec Mills has been hot and cold, Davies is still in the rotation because, well, somebody has to be, and Trevor Williams was traded away at the deadline due to his underperformance and was utilized as an extra piece to obtain a top-five prospect from the New York Mets.

This tweet makes me realize just how terrible the rotation is at this point. The offense hasn’t been world-beaters either but they’ve at least had their bright spots in Rookie of the Year candidate Patrick Wisdom, the emergence of NL August Rookie of the Month Frank Schwindel and Rafael Ortega’s contribution in the leadoff spot. Ian Happ, who has struggled all season, has finally turned the corner and played to his potential in recent weeks.

No matter what the offseason ends up looking like, Jed Hoyer and the front office has to address the starting rotation. You cannot re-tool, rebuild or whatever label you want to slap on it until this rotation uncertainty gets some answers. It’s not like you can lean on the bullpen, either – although there are some potential bright spots there (although they’re few and far between).

The rotation, however, has been abysmal all season long and there is no other way to put it. Looking ahead to 2022, let’s take a look at who we know will be part of rotation and potential pieces that can be added without breaking the bank via free agency.

Chicago Cubs: Pondering the starting rotation for 2022 – #5: Justin Steele

Justin Steele has now been a piece of the rotation for the better part of a month and recently made his fourth start against Minnesota, picking up his first win as a starter in the process. What I liked to see was not only Steele go five scoreless frames but he was stretched out to 86 pitches with three walks and only one hit, lowering his ERA to 3.48 in the process.

The reason Steele starts this list is because as he continues to improve as a starter, the more he solidifies his role in the rotation. As cliché as that sounds, you have to remember how important it is for the Cubs to have a better rotation next season and if you can find it in a younger cost-effective arm like Steele instead of having to spend money in free agency, it helps the team in so many ways and lets the front office address other needs, which, probably should still be pitching regardless. Being able to utilize his services in the rotation allows you to pay up for another starter and at least look to have a trio of Hendricks, whoever they pick up and Steele.

Hopefully, David Ross keeps Steele in the rotation and he can see how he continues to adjust.  As dominant as he was earlier in the season out of the bullpen, if he can simply figure out how to keep the walk rate down he should be able to get to six to seven innings even with his pitch count remaining in the mid-80s.

If anything, the left-hander can be a solid piece in the bullpen but obviously, the hope is that he can continue progressing just as he has been. The first time you see him go at least six innings and post a quality start, feel free to be optimistic. Steele is a key piece of the Cubs pitching staff moving forward.

Chicago Cubs: Pondering the starting rotation for 2022 – #4: Keegan Thompson

Keegan Thompson honestly comes in on this list as a question mark moving forward. The thought and hope is that he becomes a solid starter at least out of the back end of the rotation. So far he has yet to find any type of rhythm. Most recently, on Thursday, he surrendered three runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates after tossing only 1 2/3 innings, walking two and allowing three hits in the process.

The start prior, more of the same. Four earned in two innings of work on a pair of walks and five hits. He did manage to go four innings in his appearance before that back on August 21, but still, command and limiting contact were are an issue. The thing about Thompson is that, while we haven’t seen him reach it yet, this is an arm that definitely has legit potential.

This is a guy that went 19-10 with a 2.46 ERA over his three seasons at the collegiate level. Though college is far from the pros, he did toss 14 2/3 scoreless innings across four starts at the Triple-A level. He has a 3.17 ERA across his minor league career, spanning four seasons, pitching a total of 173 1/3 frames.

Right now, I think the best thing for Thompson is to keep him exactly where he’s at and let him figure it out. With all the potential in the world, he will only gain the experience and knowledge he needs to continue growing at the big league level. This season is lost anyway and sometimes the best way to learn to be better is by making mistakes and learning from them. A few starts under your belt can change things. Regardless, there is no question that he is a good pitcher. His ceiling is high. It is just a matter of putting it together now the same way Steele is starting to.

Chicago Cubs: Pondering the starting rotation for 2022 – #2: Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon is currently in the midst of a breakout season with the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox. Also on a team-friendly deal and overperforming to his fullest, Rodon has bounced back incredibly after a terrible last two seasons. Over the course of 2019 and 2020, Rodon posted a 5.74 ERA in just over 42 innings of work. It did, however, seem that things were going worse than they should be, indicated by his 3.85 FIP during that same time frame.

After the White Sox cut ties with him at the end of the 2020 campaign, Rodon just kind of hung around for much of the winter before re-signing on a one-year, $3,000,000 deal in early February. The southpaw has rewarded the team’s faith with an11-5 record and 2.41 ERA in 119 2/3 innings of work. As an important member of the White Sox’ dominant starting rotation, it is strange that their aren’t any rumblings of a contract extension, given how much he has turned it around this season.

Sometimes, if you are a below average pitcher, good games are bound to come along once in a while. Rodon has now proved he is not who we was and has made the adjustments needed to be one of the better starters in the game. If the White Sox really do make the mistake of not keeping him in the fold, the Cubs need to pounce.

Chicago Cubs: Pondering the starting rotation for 2022 – #1: Robbie Ray

Robbie Ray has been nothing short of an ace for the Toronto Blue Jays this year. Thankfully for the Cubs, he is a free agent after this season and assuming the Jays don’t sign him to a contract extension, Ray will be one of the of those pitchers that more than likely won’t land top-tier dollars and therefore 100 percent needs to be on the Cubs’ radar.

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On the season, Ray is enjoying a respectable 10-5 record with even more impressive 2.71 ERA and 3.43 FIP. He currently has an 11.4 strikeout per 9 inning ratio, tallying 202 Ks on the season thus far. A southpaw, Ray spent most of his career with Arizona from 2015-2020 before being traded to Toronto last year.

Like Rodon, Ray has turned a serious corner this year and has found something that works for him. Due to his career ERA being 4.02, he hasn’t necessarily always been ace material like he has for the Blue Jays in 2021.

However, he has pitched 159 1/3 innings on the season. Therefore, coupled with the fact that the AL East is not a weak division by any means, I am confident in the 2021 sample size that Ray has just simply improved as a pitcher. If he falls to free agency, this may be the number one guy the Cubs need to go after to help complete a rebuilding starting rotation.

Adding two key arms with Rodon and Ray, paired with Hendricks, gives you a very solid top 3. If Steele keeps progressing and Thompson can come around out of the five spot, the Cubs might have a solid rotation again as soon as next year. But if the front office instead tries to Frankenstein this thing again, we could be in for another brutal year from the starting five.