Top 10 Chicago Cubs trade candidates, ranked

The Chicago Cubs finally snapped their 11-game losing streak on Wednesday night, but even with the victory, sit 8 1/2 games out of first entering action on Thursday. In the span of two weeks, Chicago went from division leader to likely seller – and with that change, the futures of almost every guy on the roster is up in the air.

With just weeks until the trade deadline, it’s a perfect time to look at the most likely Cubs to be dealt. We’re going to rank them, with 10 being the least likely and 1 being the most. Let’s get started with a guy who’s actually under control past the end of the season.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #10 – Willson Contreras

Almost all the chatter surrounding the Cubs is focused around a group of free agents to be. But if the front office is looking to maximize returns, they could dangle two-time All-Star catcher Willson Contreras in the weeks to come.

The Venezuelan native is batting just .236 on the year, but carries a 111 OPS+ through 78 contests. That matches his 2020 performance exactly, and his 1.7 WAR ranks eighth among big league catchers this season.

We’ve heard talk in the past that Chicago will try to flip things over quickly heading into 2022. A trade of Contreras would send a pretty clear message that is no longer the plan, given he’s under control through next year. Trading an All-Star catcher, widely regarded as one of the best in the game, could be the final straw in fans’ patience with the organization, which is why I’ve got this as the least-likely move – but such boldness could also fetch one of the better hauls from another club.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #9 – Anthony Rizzo

UPDATE: Anthony Rizzo was traded to the New York Yankees on July 29 in exchange for prospects OF Kevin Alcántara, RHP Alexander Vizcaino.

I never thought I’d see the day where the possibility of the Chicago Cubs trading Anthony Rizzo would be a real possibility, but after preseason extension talks collapsed, it felt pretty real.

A low-ball offer somewhere between $60 and $70 million over four years led to Rizzo walking away from talks and shutting down the possibility of the two sides picking up discussions during the season. On the heels of this recent 11-game losing streak, the thought has once again rose to the top of our minds: the Cubs trading their unofficial captain.

This season, Rizzo has battled a lingering back issue and hasn’t quite gotten back to the form we saw during this club’s peak run. Still, he’s overcome a .250 average with a .343 OBP, good enough for a 116 OPS+. Of course, he’s coming off a third consecutive Gold Glove at first base and brings all kinds of intangibles to a clubhouse.

I’ve got Rizzo ranked ninth, ahead of only Contreras because I still believe the team will try to work something out with him in free agency. He means too much to the organization, the city and the community, at large, for ownership to be content letting him walk.

That’s not to say they should overpay an almost-32-year-old first baseman with a nagging back, but I think a trade of Anthony Rizzo comes just about as close to unforgivable as it comes these days.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #8 – Kyle Hendricks

Kyle Hendricks has bounced back from a slow start to the 2021 season to re-assume his role atop the Cubs rotation. The soft-tossing right-hander is tied for the league lead with 10 wins and carries a 3.83 ERA across 98 2/3 innings of work.

Last season, he finished ninth in NL Cy Young voting, but this year, he’s battled some issues with the long ball. Hendricks leads all of baseball with 20 home runs allowed. That being said, half of those came in the season’s first month. He’s lowered his ERA a season-worst 6.23 mark on May 9 all the way down to 3.83 following his most recent start.

Trading Hendricks would cripple the Cubs. The starting rotation is already in shambles following last winter’s trade of Yu Darvish. Jake Arrieta is on the shelf and may very well be done altogether following another disastrous outing, Trevor Williams is just getting back to the mound and Alec Mills is hit-or-miss.

But given the number of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, someone like Hendricks, who is under control for two more years with a vesting option for 2024, could be especially appealing. When you consider he doesn’t live and die with velocity, clubs might project him to age more effectively, as well.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #7 – Javier Baez

Javier Baez is one of the most intriguing potential free agents in recent memory. Do you pay him for what he’s capable of being – a human highlight reel with unparalleled instincts and athleticism – or what he often is – a guy who strikes out 35 percent of the time with intense free-swinging tendencies?

Given the other shortstops in this winter’s free agent class: Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Brandon Crawford and Marcus Semien (among others), Baez faces stiff competition getting what he’s likely looking for on the open market. For the Cubs, keeping a fan favorite in the mix for years to come certainly wouldn’t hurt matters, either.

In the end, I think Baez re-signs with the club this offseason. But before we get to that point, Chicago could look to trade a few months of their shortstop for future assets. He’s recovered from a brutal showing early in the year, heating up of late – evidenced by a 1.070 OPS over the last two weeks.

Again, though, any interested suitor will have to swallow his league-leading 112 punchouts. There are plenty of teams looking for some added punch for the home stretch; Baez, as we’ve seen time and time again, is certainly capable of adding that – along with Gold Glove-caliber defense up the middle.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #6 – Joc Pederson

UPDATE: Joc Pederson was traded to the Atlanta Braves on July 15 in exchange for first base prospect Bryce Ball.

Brought in to replace Kyle Schwarber in left field, Joc Pederson has been pretty much what we all expected to this point. On the year, the longtime Dodgers outfielder is batting .230/.299/.415, good for a 103 OPS+.

That falls a bit short of his career numbers, but all in all, he’s been a solid presence for Chicago – or, at least, as solid as anyone else not named Kris Bryant. Pederson ranks in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity and 81st in hard hit rate, further evidence of his ability to change a game and carry an offense.

Based on his defensive metrics, which are far less favorable, an American League team might best suit the 29-year-old at this point, giving him the opportunity to DH. On a one-year, $7 million deal with a mutual option for next season, there aren’t many teams that wouldn’t be able to afford his services, a further boost to the Cubs’ chances of trading him.

Teams always want a power bat at the deadline, especially if they feel they’re just one guy away from taking that next step. Pederson fits that profile and has postseason experience (and a World Series ring, to boot) – so don’t be surprised if you see him on the move this month.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #5 – Ryan Tepera

UPDATE: Ryan Tepera was traded to the Chicago White Sox on July 29 in exchange for pitching prospect Bailey Horn.

Look. Trading Kris Bryant or Craig Kimbrel is front page news. Those are the sexy moves we all love to talk about and write about, especially in the weeks leading up to the deadline. But a lot of times, it’s those lower-tier moves that wind up making a world of difference for teams.

Enter Ryan Tepera.

The veteran right-hander has returned to form in a big way in Chicago, playing a key role in the team’s dominant bullpen in the first half this year. Owner of a 3.18 FIP across 37 appearances, Tepera is set to return from the IL later this week for a big series against St. Louis, giving him – and the team – plenty of time to show he’s at 100 percent before the July 30 deadline.

His .180 XBA ranks in the top four percent of the league and a rediscovered slider has played a huge role in his resurgence this year. He’s answered the call for David Ross time and time again this year – in countless high-leverage spots.

On a one-year, $800K deal, this is as affordable as quality relief help gets in today’s game. Given he turns 34 this fall, there’s little long-term value for a team like the Cubs, who look poised for another lengthy rebuild. But for a team with its eye on October looking for late-inning depth, there’s a ton of value here and Chicago needs to capitalize on that opportunity.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #4 – Zach Davies

Now, we already talked about Hendricks, who is easily the best starting pitcher on this staff. But if Jed Hoyer opts to hold on to his prized right-hander, he could look to move the man he traded Darvish for, Zach Davies, instead.

Will Davies bring back a Hendricks-level return? Absolutely not. But given he’s turned things around of late, he could be a key chip for the front office all the same.

Let’s move past his month of April. Davies put up an earned run average pushing 10.00. To say he made a lackluster first impression is putting things very mildly. But since then, it’s been a totally different story. He’s slotted in behind Hendricks and done a fantastic job doing what he can to stabilize the rotation.

Since May 1, Davies is the owner of a 2.84 ERA across 13 starts. He’s been remarkably reliable in the sense that he always takes the ball every five days, although you’d certainly like to see him work deeper into ballgames. Still, he’s shown that his breakout performance with San Diego last year was no fluke – and Chicago could look to move him and capitalize on his strong efforts over the last two months.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #3 – Andrew Chafin

UPDATE: Andrew Chafin was traded to the Oakland Athletics on July 26 in exchange for outfield prospect Greg Diechmann and minor league pitcher Daniel Palencia.

A trade of Andrew Chafin would subtract from arguably this team’s biggest strength: its bullpen. But, the thinking here is right in line with what I said about Tepera – and could also be applied to someone like Brad Wieck, as well.

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Chafin has quickly become a fan favorite on the North Side – and not just for his outstanding facial hair, either. The veteran southpaw has made a team-leading 39 appearances on the year and boasts a 1.43 ERA that’s second only to All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel, who we’ll talk about here shortly.

The former Arizona hurler isn’t one of those guys who shuts down innings by racking up the strikeouts. He sticks to what he does best: keeping the ball in the yard and limiting hard contact. Clearly, that’s a recipe for success for the 31-year-old.

He’s limited opponents to a .185 average this season, largely thanks to his heavy sinker, which he throws almost half the time. Chafin ranks in the top 10 percent of the league in almost every metric, ranging from average exit velocity and hard hit rate to xwOBA and xERA.

All this to say a left-handed reliever who’s at the top of his game is valuable – especially to a team destined for the postseason. Expect to hear plenty of chatter surrounding Chafin leading up to the deadline.

Chicago Cubs Trade Candidates: #1 – Craig Kimbrel

If I’d have told you two years ago that Craig Kimbrel would be the most coveted player on the trade market this summer, you’d have called me crazy. But here we are, with Kimbrel re-establisheg himself as the best closer in baseball here in 2021.

On the year, Kimbrel boasts a 15.3 K/9 and, last week, we learned he earned the eighth All-Star selection of his career. He’s allowing a ridiculously low 3.1 H/9, isn’t walking batters like he did earlier in his Cubs tenure and the results speak for themselves: a 0.57 ERA in 33 appearances to go along with 20 saves.

His dominance alone would make him valuable at the trade deadline. But when you throw in the fact Kimbrel’s contract contains a team option for 2022 at just $16 million, his value jumps to a whole new level. A future Hall of Famer, the right-hander is ready to anchor a bullpen down the stretch, and, while we expect a lot of movement from the Cubs, no trade will mean more to the future of the franchise.

Hoyer must nail this trade. We’re talking about top-tier talent coming back to Chicago in a deal – and if this team wants to reload quickly, getting the right guys in return here is absolutely critical. But of all the guys we’ll hear in rumors, none seem like more of a ‘sure thing’ to be traded than Craig Kimbrel.