Chicago Cubs have watched their postseason odds fall by nearly 80%

(Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

What a difference a month makes. On June 2, FanGraphs gave the Chicago Cubs a 47.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason – their highest odds of the season. Following a seventh consecutive loss in Cincinnati Friday, those odds now sit at an alarmingly low 10.6 percent.

There’s no single culprit in the team’s miserable month of June. It was a team-wide failure by almost any standard. The starting pitching was spotty, at best, failing to work deep into games and overtaxing a bullpen that seems to have hit its breaking point here of late. The offense fell back into the years-old approach issues that have culminated in the Cubs striking out 92 times during this losing streak – the most ever in a seven-game span in team history.

Back in early June, we knew the schedule was tough and that the month would pose a serious test to a team that ran roughshod through the league in May. When the dust settled, the Cubs went 12-16 and, if we’re being honest, it’s a miracle it wasn’t worse given the team’s -34 run differential during that span.

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Right now, we need to face facts. This is not a World Series-caliber team. Even when the team’s big names are producing, this starting rotation is among the worst in baseball. And if you’re Jed Hoyer, you can’t pillage the farm system in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle in the second half with a core that we all know, as much as we love, plays hot and cold like a bottle of Icy Hot.

"“We are on a skid, and it’s not fun,” Anthony Rizzo told after Friday’s 2-1 loss to the Reds. “Losing sucks. From now on, trade rumors are going to be flying. [The media] will be asking us, as they should. We just have to concentrate on each day. We have a long way to go. It’s a marathon. There’s a long way to go in the season.”"

David Ross echoed his first baseman’s thoughts, pointing out there was still a full second half of baseball left to play. While that’s true, this roster could look wildly different in a matter of weeks. The July 30 trade deadline is right around the corner and the front office and ownership is going to have to chart a course sooner rather than later.

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I totally get wanting to get to the All-Star Break and reassess at that point, but 7 1/2 games is a hell of a gap to try and bridge. The Brewers are playing out of their minds right now and show no signs of letting up. Even if you’re able to get that deficit to three or four games by mid-July, do you really feel confident enough in this team to go and add? I don’t.

It seems like we’d all come to terms with the reckoning that could come for this team at the deadline back in April, when the team struggled out of the gates. Then, we spent May lying to ourselves, falling victim to that ever-enticing hope that’s tantalized Cubs fans for generations.

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But given how the team closed out June and where they find themselves in the standings, it’s time to admit that this Chicago Cubs ball club has little chance of reaching the postseason – and the front office needs to act knowing as much at the deadline.