Chicago Cubs: Evaluating Jake Arrieta’s first 10 starts of 2021

Chicago Cubs: Jake Arrieta’s performance 10 starts in has been a mixed bag

Numbers-wise in 10 starts, Arrieta carries a 4.41 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 5.16 FIP, 4.95 xFIP, 7.24 K/9, 3.53 BB/9, and 44.4 percent hard-hit rate in 51 innings. He is averaging about 5.1 innings per start, going six innings four times and never making it to the seventh.

Looking at the contact his pitches are generating, his 44.4 percent Hard Hit% (Statcast) and barrels percentage (9.4 percent) are both higher than normal and his groundball rate is down (39.4 percent) vs. his career rate of 48.6 percent. His flyball percentage is up (38.8) against his career 30.5%. Yes, this is a small sample size compared to a normal season of 25-30 starts, though it is worth noting that last year he made nine starts and his barrels percentage was 7.8 percent, Hard Hit% at 38.3 percent and groundball rate at 51.8 percent as he posted a 5.08 ERA, 4.66 FIP and 4.38 xFIP.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

Arrieta’s strikeout and walks are about where one would probably expect him to be. His command is not as sharp as it was in his best days and he will miss some bats with pitch movement, but not a ton. The main thing is he is getting hit harder than desired and not getting enough on the ground. He has already given up nine home runs, which is not surprising considering the harder contact against and more flyballs.

It was hoped that he could use his sinker, which he uses instead of traditional four-seam fastballs, and offspeed pitches to get balls pounded on the ground. His velocity on the sinker is averaging around 91 MPH, so movement is going to be his best bet at getting outs as opposed to overpowering guys. Statcast shows that Arrieta is 78th in vertical movement % Sink vs. Average (3) among qualified pitchers.

Another thing is that he is not using the changeup very much, only about six percent of the time, compared to his Phillies years where he threw them from 11-18 percent of the time. He has been using the curveball more, which according to FanGraphs pitch value is his most valuable pitch this year. It is possible he is not using the changeup now because the pitch value has not been there for that pitch in years past.

To sum up Arrieta’s first 10 starts as simply as possible…”meh”. He’s had some solid starts to begin the year but some regression from the 2.57 ERA after his first five starts was inevitable.

Chicago Cubs: How Jake Arrieta can improve his game (hopefully)

Everything said here will obviously be so much easier said than done. To put it a simple as possible, Arrieta will need to get more balls on the ground and give up less hard contact.

Well duh. Super easy right?

Commanding the sinker and getting less balls barreled up is going to require adjustments we as fans cannot necessarily coach. Walks are probably not going to just go away with him, he has been consistently an 8-10 percent walk rate pitcher going back to 2016. The walks can hurt less when more balls are put in play via weak contact and on the ground. Considering his groundball rate is well off what he has done virtually every year since 2014, feels like there is hope he can get better and even out as time goes on.

Reality could very well be that he just will be a “so-so” pitcher the rest of the way. The past few years do not say things are trending in his favor, and again he is 35 so he is in that twilight era of his playing career. In spring training we saw solid outings in the box score, but a lot of hard contact against. Everyone knew his best days were behind him, including himself as he has tried to adjust, it is just a matter of what is actually left. There just might not be much, but hopefully, there is something he can find.

He is going to have days where he pitches decent, he will have days where he is getting barreled and he will have days where he gets barreled and might get a little lucky. All we can hope for is that he can put a nice string of starts together that are of the “solid” variety and maybe build a bit more confidence back up…not to say he lacks any confidence.