Cubs: Nico Hoerner is the only choice for the leadoff spot

Here we go again, talking about the Chicago Cubs’ need for a productive leadoff man. This time the candidate is Nico Hoerner, and he’s currently the team’s best option for this spot.

Since the team parted ways with Dexter Fowler after the magical 2016 season, there’s been a gaping hole at the top of the lineup. Rather than externally finding a replacement for Fowler’s production, for some reason the Cubs have plugged in unconventional options in this role. Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant are a few names that come to mind as failed leadoff experiments.

The most recent man in the No.1 spot was Ian Happ, who fared well in that part of the lineup last year. In 37 plate appearances as the first batter of the game, Happ slashed .273/.351/.727 with nine strikeouts and four walks during the 2020 season.

That production was enough to earn Happ the same spot in the lineup this year but he’s struggled, slashing .154/.389/.154 with five walks and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances as the first batter of the game. Once again the Cubs tried to go cheap with using a nonconventional option, when they could have found a true leadoff man and used Happ in the middle or towards the bottom of the order where his bat would be more valued.

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It doesn’t look like the Cubs will make a move any time soon, so in the meantime they’ll go with Hoerner in the leadoff spot. I wanted to see Hoerner in this role going back to last summer, but his struggles proved he still had some things to work on. However, a strong spring camp and start to this season has given manager David Ross enough confidence to use Hoerner at the top of the lineup this year.

He’s thrived so far since being called up, slashing .429/.556/.714 with three RBI in 18 plate appearances. Four of his six hits have been doubles, and I think what’s been most impressive from Hoerner has been his ability to draw walks. He already has three base-on-balls in 18 PAs, which is 25 percent of the walks (12) he had in 108 PAs last season.

Cubs: Nico Hoerner is off to a fast and furious start at the dish

His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is currently .545 which is nearly double the league average (.283). Some other advanced metrics for Hoerner in this small sample size are also encouraging signs that he’s ready to produce at a high level consistently.

• xwOBA: (.395)
• Hard Hit %: (54.5%)
• K % (16.7%)
• BB % (22.2%)

If he continues to put the ball in play and get on base at this current rate, Hoerner adds a different dimension to the top of the Cubs’ lineup that we haven’t seen in quite some time.

Aside from all the traditional stats and analytical data, Hoerner brings a different element to the Cubs’ lineup which might be the most important characteristic of a successful leadoff hitter.

Of all the things to change in baseball over the years, one constant will always be the importance of the leadoff man who can get the rest of the lineup going. To put it in perspective we can look at the impact of Mookie Betts in the 2020 World Series.

In the four games the Dodgers won during that series, Betts went 7-for-18 with one walk and five runs scored. In the two games Los Angeles lost, Betts went 0-for-8 with one walk and no runs scored.

That’s no coincidence. A productive leadoff man can separate the good teams from the great teams in this league.

Hoerner producing in the leadoff spot won’t fix all of the Cubs’ offensive issues, but it’s a step in the right direction.