Cubs: David Bote has been wildly unlucky, despite hitting the ball hard

Second base has been a black hole for the Cubs this season. Between Eric Sogard and David Bote, Chicago’s gotten next to no production from the position during their first 14 contests. But if Saturday’s offensive breakout is any indication, that might be about to change.

Bote joined in on the home run parade at the Friendly Confines, hitting his second long ball of the season in the team’s 13-4 win over the Braves. One game does not a turnaround make, though. On the season, the Cubs still have one of – if not the – worst offenses in all of Major League Baseball.

Still, it was nice to see the offense hang a crooked number – and now, it’s about turning that display into some long-term momentum to help the team get back to .500 and back into the NL Central race.

For that to happen, the Cubs will need Bote’s encouraging peripherals to start translating to on-field success. What do I mean by that? Let’s dive into some numbers.

At face value, you’re unlikely to be encouraged by a .156/.263/.375 line. Which makes sense. That’s not going to A) help you lock down the everyday role at second base or B) help solidify an already-struggling lineup.

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Personally, I’m big on that next level of numbers. So far this season, Bote has slashed his strikeout rate by roughly 10 percent over last year – while maintaining his walk rate, more or less. A .125 BABIP tells you that his lack of success is very unlikely to continue as long as he keeps getting regular reps.

Then, if you look closely at some of the metrics surrounding Bote’s performance to-date, there are even more signs of encouragement. He ranks in the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate, the top quarter of players in terms of average exit velocity and top 12 percent of max exit velocity.

Cubs have to go with David Bote over Eric Sogard – no questions asked.

In other words, he’s hitting the ball – hard – but has been incredibly unlucky over the season’s first two weeks. It might be difficult, but manager David Ross has no choice here: Bote needs to start at second and we need to quit wasting at-bats with the likes of Sogard.

Eric Sogard is a depth piece – nothing more. On the year, he carries a completely useless line of .120/.115/.240 which, if you’re doing the math at home, works out to a -4 OPS+. And while Bote’s Baseball Savant page offers up a great deal of hope and optimism, Sogard’s does not. 

The choice couldn’t be any clearer. Like I said before the season started – Bote is the guy at second. The numbers haven’t bore out what he’s been bringing to the table. But if you keep him in there, things are bound to level out – and with it, a key piece of the team’s offense will fall into place.