Chicago Cubs: Comparing Joc Pederson to Kyle Schwarber

The Chicago Cubs have agreed to terms with former Dodgers outfield Joc Pederson on a one-year, $7 million deal per Ken Rosenthal. Pederson, 28, comes in to add another power bat to the lineup and bring much-needed depth to the outfield. Outside the surprise that the Cubs actually brought in a well-known player on an big league deal, it is easy to spot easy similarities between him and Kyle Schwarber in the numbers.

Replacing one hitter on the Cubs with the seemingly same hitter

It was not long ago when the Cubs declined to tender Kyle Schwarber a contract, thus making him a free agent for the first time in his career. He was going to make at least $8 million had he been tendered by the Cubs, but he signed with the Nationals on a one-year, $10 million deal after being non-tendered.

Now the Cubs have Joc Pederson, a guy who can hit 25-35 home runs with a solid OBP but does not hit for a high average. Sounds familiar doesn’t it? In terms of offense the Cubs have replaced Schwarber with one guy who is incredibly similar at the plate. If we look at what Schwarber’s arbitration number was going to be and Pederson’s deal, it is essentially a $1 million difference. Yes, Schwarber is making $10 million with the Nationals but this is just looking at what range he probably would have gotten with the Cubs.

With all of that said, this is not necessarily a bad thing. The fact that the Cubs were able to replace Schwarber with a player similar with a few more upsides is more than many anticipated the way things were going this offseason. While Pederson is not the dream contact-first bat that could be of good use on a team with holes in their swings, there is good value in this player.

Cubs: biggest similarities between the two players lie in their career numbers

First, to start with the basic career slash-line:

• Schwarber: .230/.336/.480 in 551 games
• Pederson: .230/.336/.470 in 748 games

In the words of Dory from Finding Nemo, “Okay, that’s just scary!” It was easy to imagine that these two players were similar just from their playing styles, but the numbers are insanely identical.

Pederson made his debut in 2014 and Schwarber made his debut in 2015. The difference in games is a little over a season’s worth, but still noteworthy of how the two compare. Now to add a few more career numbers into the mix:

• Schwarber: 121 home runs, .816 OPS, 113 wRC+, 28% K rate, 13% BB rate, .267 BABIP, 9.6 fWAR
• Pederson: 130 home runs, .806 OPS, 118 wRC+, 24.2% K rate, 12.1% BB rate, .257 BABIP, 13.0 fWAR

[Insert identical Spidermans pointing at each other meme here]

Despite similarities, if you had to choose a slightly better player up to this point is is probably Pederson. His wRC+ being slightly higher and his strikeout rate being higher than the league average, but lower than Schwarber. It is pretty accurate to say Schwarber does have the better power stroke considering he has just nine less home runs in less games, but Pederson could also benefit playing on warm days in Chicago than Chavez Ravine and other pitcher-friendly NL West parks. He won’t necessarily hit the titanic Shwarber-like blasts, but Pederson has 30 home run-type power.

There is one more set of offensive numbers to look at:

• Schwarber: 43.8% pull, 31.4% center, 24.7% opposite field – .197 avg. against lefties
• Pederson: 44.9% pull, 34.2% center, 20.9% opposite field – .191 avg. against lefties

It is no surprise both players are heavy pull-hitters to right field. Pederson pulls a bit more so it can explain why his career BABIP is lower, more pulled balls into shifts and less opposite field equals more outs. It is also no surprise that two lefty sluggers who have some holes in their swing struggle against south paws.

Cubs: Biggest difference between the two comes defensively

If there is one big advantage the Cubs have in having Pederson over Schwarber, it’s versatility. Over his career, Pederson has played all three positions of the outfield. Mostly center, but that will be taken by Ian Happ so expect him in left where Schwarber was with Jason Heyward in right most of the time. Unless Ross does not want too many lefties against a lefty starter and Pederson will either platoon or could take some time in right with Kris Bryant (if he is not traded) in left. Plug him in anywhere and he can do it.

Schwarber on the other had has played all but 14 career innings of his outfield career in left. He is either going to be a left fielder or DH most likely going forward, unless the Nationals work with him to be more versatile. Regardless Pederson already has that edge. There is no doubt that Pederson is the better outfielder here and his versatility adds a lot of value to his game.

Pederson had a really good defensive year in the outfield in 2019 with 12 defensive runs saved and a UZR/150 (ultimate zone rating / 150) of 13.2. Schwarber is never going to reach that level of effectiveness in the outfield. Remember that Pederson is much quicker and agile than Schwarber and that is going to help the Cubs out both in the outfield and on the bases.