Chicago Cubs: Looking at a very thin starting rotation

The Cubs have a major starting pitching problem heading into the 2021 season.

Within the last few weeks, the Chicago Cubs rotation has lost Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana. They have added the likes of Zach Davies (in the Darvish trade) and Shelby Miller (non-guaranteed deal) and that is about it. So how on earth are the Cubs going to put this rotation together in 2021?

The brutal reality is, this rotation is not going to carry this team to the postseason. It is lucky for Chicago they play in a bad division but if they want to have any chances at competing they are going to need to improve somehow. With that said, here is a look at a potential rotation with what they have now.

There are only a few certainties for the rotation as of right now among the options with several candidates that are on the fringe between rotation and bullpen. Half of the rotation candidates are up in the air to even make the team out of spring training. This is not an ideal situation, but here we go.

Cubs: Kyle Hendricks is clearly the number one choice for this rotation

The past several years, Cubs fans always played a fun guessing game on who would be the Opening Day starter. There was always a handful of candidates worthy of being the number one guy, this year is sadly different.

Kyle Hendricks, 31, is entering his seventh full season in the Majors. Last season he made his first ever Opening Day – and promptly pitched a complete-game shutout. Hendricks went 6-5 last year with a 2.88 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 0.996 WHIP, and league-best 0.9 BB/9. Overall he has a career 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 3.53 FIP in 175 games.

It’s crazy to realize he is the last remaining pitcher left on the team from the 2016 World Series championship club. Fans remember what he did that year, including an MLB-leading 2.13 ERA and a masterful postseason. He is currently the only starting pitcher on the staff to pitch 1,000+ innings in his career.

Be prepared for his second career Opening Day start in 2021.

Cubs: Zach Davies is likely going to have to step up into a bigger role

For the past two seasons, Yu Darvish was the number two starter for the Cubs. Now the likely number two is going to be the soft-tossing arm they got in return for Darvish. Zach Davies, 27, will be entering his seventh season in the majors.

“Poor man’s Kyle Hendricks” follows the theme of the Cubs rotation of soft-tossing arms who uses contact to get outs. He is a career 3.79 ERA pitcher with a 4.18 FIP and 1.3 WHIP in 123 starts. Last season with the Padres he pitched to a career-low 2.73 ERA and 1.1 WHIP in 12 starts.

Here is the thing, he is a solid pitcher and not a bad veteran piece to have. He has plenty of experience pitching at Wrigley Field and has been part of several postseason teams. However he is typically more of a back-of-the-rotation type arm.

Ideally he is a four or five starter that can eat innings and pitch well enough to keep teams in games. With the group of names currently with the Cubs however, he will likely be at the top of the rotation because of his experience. Needless to say, he’s nowhere near what Darvish was.

Another guy who could very well be forced into a role he is not meant to be in.

One has to admire what college walk-on Alec Mills has done in his brief MLB career. After being a pleasant surprise as a spot-starter/reliever in in 2018 and 2019, he made the rotation full-time in 2020 as a low-end rotation piece. He pitched to a 4.48 ERA and 1.2 WHIP in 11 games, including his historic no-hitter at Miller Park.

Mills is a decent option as a fifth starter. He have some very solid performances but not at the consistency of a typical 1-3 starter and will not often go more than five or six innings. However with who is going to be on the team and the uncertainties, he might have to be pushed into mid-rotation.

Despite pitching for the Cubs for several years, he only has 119 2/3 career MLB innings on his resume at age 29. His only full season as a starter was in a 60-game abbreviated season. This is not to say he could be a full-time rotation piece in a 162 game season, but we have yet to see it. Feels pretty safe to bet he will be pitching for a spot in the rotation in spring.

Cubs: The very bottom of the rotation could go a number of ways

Brailyn Marquez:

The Cubs’ top prospect will have a lot of eyes on him in 2021. The soon-to-be 22-year-old lefty from the Dominican Republic pitched in two-thirds of an inning in the season finale last year. In 2019 he worked to a 3.13 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 22 starts between South Bend and Myrtle Beach. He has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level. Do not be surprised if he makes starts at some point in 2021.

Shelby Miller:

A few days ago the Cubs brought in veteran Shelby Miller in to a non-guaranteed contract. He will make $875,000 if he makes the major league team in 2021. From 2012 – 2015 between the Cardinals and Braves, Miller was very good, pitching to a 3.22 ERA, 3.82 FIP and 1.3 WHIP. He was an All-Star in 2015. Since being traded to the Diamondback in 2016, he has 6.89 ERA and 1.8 WHIP in just 48 games. Could be be a diamond in the rough? Unlikely but time will tell.

Tyson Miller:

Picked by the Cubs in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, Miller made one start last year and pitched in two games. Miller, 25, had an impressive run in Tennessee in 2019 when he pitched to a 2.56 ERA and 1.0 WHIP in 15 starts before struggling in Iowa.

This should tell you right here how dire the rotation situation is. Even if most of these guys pitch well, there is so little depth so an injury could really put things in a bind. Ideally the Cubs will bring in another arm or two that can start and has some sort of MLB resume.