Chicago Cubs: Five dark horse candidates for the starting rotation

While there doesn’t seem to be a ton of room for surprises, here are some unlikely options for the Cubs 2021 rotation.

Last week, I did my best to try and put together the most likely and realistic rotation for the 2021 Chicago Cubs. Taking into account the players on the roster, a supposed and now seemingly ubiquitous lack of funds, and the uncertainty of a 2021 season with or without fans right before a looming bargaining roadblock, it was pretty conservative. And while the Cubs last few offseasons have been the definition of conservative and thrifty, there’s nothing saying things can’t change.

In that vein, I’ve put together a list of guys who could possibly find their way in the Cubs rotation next spring if some stars align (and probably if some are shipped out for the ones requiring money). Mind you, none of these guys are likely to be in Chicago come next April, but this isn’t the conservative list.

In this list, here are three established big league guys to go along with two Cubs farmhands. One is a former Cubs hero, one who indirectly had a hand in helping Chicago win the World Series in 2016, another who was on free agency rumor mill radar a few years ago and two up-and-coming southpaws who probably won’t be ready just yet. As noted, none are likely to be with the Cubs big league club in April, but 2020 has already been strange enough – why not add a little more with this Cubs offseason?

Chicago Cubs: Could a reunion be possible?

No Chicago Cubs fan needs to be reacquainted with Jake Arrieta. Almost every reasonable fan will always hold Arrieta close his or her heart, and many were severely disappointed when the Cubs did not bring him back after 2017. While most of those fans have changed their tune over the last three years, many having warmed to his de facto replacement Yu Darvish over the last year and a half, there could be a very warm reunion with the former ace… at the right price.

After three years and $75 million from the Philadelphia Phillies, Arrieta is now a free agent again and no one is looking to pay a 34-year-old that kind of money to be their number four or five starter. If the market doesn’t present itself or if it is especially cold, an incentive-laden contract could be a win-win for both Arrieta in the Cubs. If he pitches poorly, the Cubs can dump him; if he pitches well, he’ll be worth the incentives.

There’s also the chance Arrieta could be used out of the bullpen where his stuff would play up, but I don’t see him going for it, nor do the Cubs necessarily need that unless the price were really right. I do think he could be better than his numbers may have pegged him this year, if only because you could take away his one bad start against the Braves and see a guy with an ERA in the threes.

A reunion with the Cubs might be unlikely, yet with the right market conditions and deal, would it be the worst idea? Hey, he wouldn’t be the first big right-handed Texan to come back to open-armed Chicagoans

Chicago Cubs: Could the big lefty find his way into the rotation?

Despite his upside, this one is probably the least likely of my five, which is saying something because the Cubs actually have Brailyn Marquez under contract. As we witnessed this past September, from both the organization and Marquez himself, he’s probably not ready despite the hype and excitement from the fanbase.

The fireballing lefty is as enticing a prospect as the Cubs have had since Mark Prior, and you can bet that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer want nothing more than for him to succeed by blowing hitters and fans away. That being said, it’s probably a less than 1 percent chance that Marquez could crack the rotation next year. 2022, now that’s a different story; but, without a minor league season in 2020 and his lack of experience heading into this season, it’s extremely unlikely.

Then again, it was extremely unlikely the 2020 season would succeed or even happen. It was also unlikely, we were told, that Marquez would find his way into the bigs in 2020; that also happened. While Marquez won’t likely be in the Chicago rotation until 2022 at the earliest, he has the stuff and he is with the Cubs currently. The good new is, even if he doesn’t start the year in Chicago, you can almost guarantee he’ll be back up at some point and in some role.

Chicago Cubs: Could the rotation be steeled by a young lefty?

This option follows along the lines of the last, but this guy has at least pitched in AA Tennessee in two different years. Justin Steele, another lefty with excellent stuff, is a few years older than Marquez and has a bit more experience than the fireballer. That being said, his 2019 was the polar opposite of Marquez, as he went 0-6 with a 5.59 ERA in 11 starts as opposed to Marquez who went 9-5 with a 3.13 in two different A-ball locales.

Steele may not seem like a great choice given that abysmal 2019, but the Cubs thought highly enough of him to invite him to South Bend this past year, where he wowed with his advanced curve ball and high spin-rate fastball that has touched 97 MPH. While Steele did get called up to the big club during 2020, he never actually made an appearance.

As a left-hander who may have used the past year to work on command, strength and his already plus pitches, there’s no telling what kind of guy we may see in March when Spring Training starts. As we already saw with Adbert Alzolay at the South Bend site, guys were taking their work seriously and working on their games.

If Steele can command all three of his pitches and keeps his velocity in the mid 90’s, he’s another guy who could turn some heads in the spring and win himself a shot if stars align.

Chicago Cubs: Could this guy rebound in 2021?

While this isn’t the Jake most Cubs fans would pine for, Jake Odorizzi is a guy who has been on the Cubs radar before, with much buzz accompanying the last time Odorizzi was a free agent in 2017. The Cubs went a different way, signing Darvish and Tyler Chatwood that offseason, but there could be interest in Odorizzi after a few years in Minnesota. There could be even more interest in the market for his services doesn’t appear the way Odorizzi wants, prompting the Cubs to take a gamble on him at a reduced rate or smaller number of years.

Odorizzi dealt with several injuries this past season on his way to a terrible 2020 campaign that saw him make just four starts in the shortened season. He was on the postseason roster for the Twins, but he just didn’t have a good showing in the final year of his contract. After a rough year and the prospect of a lean offseason, the 30 year old may not garner as much attention or hype as he did three years ago. This could set the stage for a pairing with the thrifty Cubs.

If Odorizzi can replicate what he did in 2019, when he went 15-7 with a 3.91 ERA, the Cubs could be looking at a bargain on a one or two year deal. With the uncertainty of that CBA ending after next season, there could be even more incentive for a guy like Odorizzi to take a chance on himself with a one year deal before possibly making one more run at free agency. Regardless, the right-hander is someone the Cubs could use on their roster in 2021 if he’s healthy, and, as always lately, if the price is right.

While it’s not likely any of these guys will find their name penciled into the starting rotation come next April, there’s a scenario where any of them or possibly others could find themselves in that exact role. We’ll just have to see how this offseason plays out both with money, trades, and of course, this pandemic.