Chicago Cubs: What will your favorite do in 60 games–or more?

There’s lots of reason to hope that Cubs can put up crazy numbers in 60 games.

While we won’t be getting 162 games in the 2020 season, it appears we will be getting some semblance of a season- namely, 60 games. While the 60 games won’t be coming at the usual beginning of the spring, it’s important to note the many different variables that can affect performance over a pretty large sample size (about two months).

Some players are known for being slow or hot starters, but that’s when the season starts in March or April. How many of their issues come from the weather being colder, fan attendance being lower, or just a general seasonal philosophy/feeling?

Conversely, how many guys just struggle because they’re getting their timing, finding a groove, or working on their eye at the beginning of a new season? It’s also impossible to know or be able to tell how players will be affected by COVID-19, a strange stop and start layoff, beginning the season in the heart of summer, or the general tension and unease in the country right now.

We’re dealing with so many different variables that many of the general notions and theories regarding hitting variables and how they manifest in each player can probably be tossed out the window. Career norms might not run true to form.

Or they might. In that vein, let’s take a look at how some of the core Cubs players could perform based on three data points- 60 games from the start of the season, last 60 games (which will essentially approximate this year’s slate of games calendar-wise), and best 60 games.

Chicago Cubs: These two could have monster “seasons” in 2020

Generally speaking, there is a learning curve (no pun intended) when every player starts a season. With extended spring training and offseason workouts, those curves have been regulated and flattened (you haven’t heard that expression the last three months) by many players. However, the fact remains- some guys get off to great starts historically and some seem to be stuck in the mud in April and May.

In 2019, several Cubs got out of the gates quickly in their first 60 games. Willson Contreras started 53 of the Cubs’ first 60 games and put up a slash line of .278/.383/.526. I think most fans would take that this season as well. In addition, he posted 13 home runs, 36 RBI, and 32 runs scored. Kris Bryant also had a good start to the season in 2019. He posted a slash line of .270/.385/.535 with 46 runs scored, 16 doubles, 34 BB, and the same exact 13 home runs and 36 RBI as Contreras.

Anthony Rizzo put up phenomenal numbers to start the season- 16 home runs, 45 RBI, 41 runs, and a .276/.390/.542 slash line. Javier Baez also started well in his first 60 games, swatting 16 home runs as well, driving in 42, and posting a really tremendous .306/.347/.584 slash line along with his usual spectacular defense.

Suffice it to say, if the Cubs got those lines from guys who should all be hitting in the top five spots in the lineup, they’ll be sitting pretty in the NL Central. However, four guys does not make a team, regardless of how you stack them in the lineup.

Chicago Cubs: These two were not all smiles to start 2019

Before getting into the sour starters in 2019, there was one more decent start to 2019-  Jason Heyward (before he was moved to leadoff), managed to put up a .246/.355/.421 slash line with nine home runs, which I think the Cubs would take in this shortened 2020.

On to the bad… Kyle Schwarber, despite hitting the ball really hard nearly all of last year, had an almost untenable first 60 games, putting up a slash line of just .227/.333/.438. While he did have 11 home runs, only tallying 23 RBI, six doubles, while also racking up 64 strikeouts isn’t gonna cut it for a guy projected to be hitting cleanup around those four aforementioned guys who had hot starts in 2019.

The much-maligned Albert Almora, whose season basically went in the toilet after the horrific foul ball he hit struck the young fan on May 29, didn’t have a great first 60 games, but it wasn’t completely atrocious. While he posted a .251 batting average, his .297 OBP certainly leaves a lot to be desired. In addition, he posted a .433 SLG which isn’t awful for a centerfielder if he plays great defense (something Almora also, unfortunately, didn’t do last season).

After that, Ian Happ wasn’t even in the big leagues for the start of last season, but his 2018 start wasn’t exactly mind-blowing either- .228 batting average and just 22 runs. However, his ending to the 2019 campaign was pretty darn good- as was Schwarber’s- so let’s take a look at that.

Chicago Cubs: These guys were nuclear to end 2019

The last few weeks of the 2019 season left a bad taste in a lot of fans’ mouths. Despite the acrimony that led to the departure of former skipper Joe Maddon and left the Cubs out of the playoffs for the first time since 2015, there were some stellar performances down the stretch (in basically the same 60 games calendar-wise as the ones we’ll hopefully be watching in 2020).

Obviously, fans remember the theatrics and fireworks put up immediately by Big Stick Nick- Nicholas Castellanos. Unfortunately, Castellanos was signed by the Reds (something that may come back to haunt the Cubs with the DH in play for 2020 and 2021 now) and won’t be back. So, Cubs fans won’t be seeing a repeat of the .321/.356/.646 slash line with 68 hits, 16 home runs, 21 doubles, 43 runs, and 36 RBI Castellanos put up in his 51 games with the Cubs.

What they may see are the numbers some of their other sluggers put up in the last two months of the season. Schwarber absolutely raked after the Cubs acquired Castellanos, producing a prodigious and long-awaited .285/.374/.622 slash line that came with 16 bombs and 45 driven in. While he didn’t hit a ton of home runs, Rizzo also raked during his last 60 games of 2019- a .314/.428/.500 slash line included that ridiculous high OBP that the Cubs will obviously take out of the two-hole in 2020.

Chicago Cubs: Crazy Numbers from 60 game samples

Now that we’ve examined both the first and last 60 game samples from this past season, let’s take a look at some of the best stretches for your favorite Cubs. We already took a look at the best stretch Schwarber has had as a Cub last August and September.

How about the 2016 NL MVP? From June 27 to September 3, 2016, Bryant went on quite a tear- posting a .355/.455.662 slash line with 18 home runs, 40 RBI, 15 doubles, 34 walks, and staggering 57 runs. No wonder he took home some hardware that year. His “Bryzzo” other half has had even more crazy 60 game samples.

From April 13 to June 19, 2015, Rizzo posted a .314/.420/.606 with 14 home runs and 39 RBI. From May 29 to August 9, 2016, he posted a .333/.422/.636 with 13 home runs, 25 doubles, 45 RBI and 40 runs scored. Then, to adjust a little from his 2019 start already mentioned in a previous slide, from March 31-June 11, 2019, he put up a .289/.395/.569 with 17 HR, 46 RBI, and 40 runs scored. Let’s just hope the slimmed-down “best shape of his life” Rizzo is good for one of those runs in 2020.

Baez has had his own tears the past couple seasons, as he fell just short of NL MVP Christian Yelich in 2018 and his 2019 start. From May 27 to August 3, 2018, Baez slashed .330/.364/.595 with 11 HR, 45 RBI, 20 doubles, 12 stolen bases, and 39 runs scored.

From June 16 to September 30, 2017, Contreras posted a .308/.398/.602 with 16 HR and 49 RBI. Mind you, that tear was actually upended with a hamstring injury that occurred right in the middle. It probably sapped power and hits from an incredible run that could have been even better.

Whether the historical starts or finishes of your favorite Cubs bear any importance in this crazy shortened season, every hit and home run will be scrutinized that much more because there will be no throwaway games for David Ross and the Cubs in 2020.