Chicago Cubs: Three things the 2020 ZiPS predictions will get wrong

The Chicago Cubs’ 2020 ZiPS predictions came out on Thursday. They were conservative with many picks, but they are underestimating some key guys.

On Thursday, FanGraphs.com released its annual ZiPS projections for the Chicago Cubs, giving their predictions on what they think will happen with each player on the 2020 team. Click here to read the article to see everything for yourself.

The first sentence sums up well how many are feeling right now: “It’s hard to feel much excitement about the Cubs.” This part isn’t much of a surprise; indeed, other predictions are coming out about the 2020 season right now that isn’t exactly bullish on the Cubs.

Neither are the majority of the predictions that are out for the big-name players much of a surprise: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward are all about where we would expect them to be. One player that ZiPS is high on for 2020 is Ian Happ, who they project will get 552 plate appearances and post a 102 OPS+.

The rotation is about where we would expect as well, at least in the first four slots. Kyle Hendricks is projected to have another solid season. Yu Darvish is expected to pick up where he left off in the second half of 2019, and Jon Lester and Jose Quintana again are predicted to be still decent starters but shells of their former selves.

Again, there weren’t a ton of surprises in these predictions. Yet I have identified three areas in which I believe the ZiPS projections are underestimating the Chicago Cubs. Here we look at Willson Contreras, Craig Kimbrel, and the fifth starter’s spot.

Chicago Cubs: The starting catcher isn’t getting much love

As he turns 28 this year, I believe that Willson Contreras is in a great position to have a big year. It seemed like he was really on the verge of breaking out last year, but injuries again interrupted his 2019 campaign, and he just wasn’t able to put together that banner year we’ve been waiting for. When he did play, he was great, posting a career-high .888 OPS.

If he stays on the field, I think Contreras will play well enough to get some MVP votes this year. This is why I was a little disappointed at the traditional numbers projected for the backstop: 19 home runs (after 24 in 105 games in 2019), 65 RBIs, and a .254 batting average, good for just a 2.4 WAR. The OPS+, which was 125 last year, was all the way down to 106 for 2020.

The article didn’t offer much of an explanation, other than at one point it said that Contreras and Victor Caratini form “a more-than-adequate combination” behind the plate. Perhaps they felt that his weaker second-half performance – a .756 OPS in the 28 games he did manage to get into – warranted the regression after a .937 OPS in 77 first-half games. Maybe they also felt that his weak second half in 2018 shows that he can’t sustain a steady pace over a full season.

Still, I think these projections are sleeping a little on Contreras. Hopefully, with the support of the usual Cubs’ cast on offense, Contreras will take on a more significant role in the lineup and breeze past these projected numbers. The guess here is that he will.

Chicago Cubs: The fifth starter spot won’t be that bad

One of the most exciting battles coming into spring training for the Cubs in 2020 will be the fifth starting rotation spot. It appears that Tyler Chatwood and Alec Mills are two of the top candidates. The 30-year-old Chatwood had a nice 2019 in swing duty, posting a 3.76 ERA after a miserable 2018. Alec Mills, meanwhile, showed some potential down the stretch as a possible fifth starter or bullpen arm.

ZiPS isn’t high on either of these two. At one point, the article reads, “The fifth starter position is a concern, one the Cubs have done little to address. Tyler Chatwood is a walking heartburn machine, and Alec Mills isn’t likely to be any better.”

Chatwood is projected to regress significantly. After making five starts in 2019, ZiPS has him at 14 starts (30 games total) in 2020 with a 4.50 ERA. Again, this is “in the middle” between his 2018 and 2019 numbers, but I think if used correctly that Chatwood will be closer to 2019 in 2020.

What I don’t understand is the weak outlook on Mills; after posting a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings in 2019, ZiPS has him at 4.88 ERA over a full season. This includes 125 innings and 21 starts. I just don’t think there’s enough of a track record with Mills to suggest that his ERA will be that high. It very well could be, but I think if given a chance, that Mills will do better than that either as a fifth starter or out of the bullpen.

Of course, there are other options; Jharel Cotton is another guy who will get a look for the fifth spot. I think there are enough options for a competition that the fifth spot won’t be as bad as FanGraphs is making it sound.