Chicago Cubs: Trading Kris Bryant would be an unforgivable mistake

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(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
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(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

One of the longest offseasons in recent memory is drawing to a close. Still, the Cubs might not be done adding to their roster – or, perhaps more significantly, they might not be done subtracting from it.

According to general manager Jed Hoyer, the team is likely to explore the trade market in February, even as players report to Mesa to kick off spring workouts and, soon thereafter, Cactus League action. The name most likely to be included in trade rumors as the season nears? None other than former Rookie of the Year, MVP and World Series champion Kris Bryant.

For months, Bryant’s name has swirled in trade rumors. Based on what we’ve heard, it seems likely the Cubs might have already dealt him if not for his service time grievance that went unresolved until late January. By now, though, a lot of teams have already executed their respective offseason plans – potentially limiting the number of interested suitors.

That might be a good thing at the end of the day. Regardless of the fact the front office seems like they’re focused on getting under the $208 million mark in payroll to avoid luxury tax penalties and reset their standing heading into next winter, trading Bryant isn’t going to make this team better – period.

(Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Getting the right return seems unlikely right now

About a month ago, David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago reported that the Cubs had an astronomical asking price in any Bryant trade talks – which had caused a lot of teams to think twice when it came to acquiring the Chicago slugger.

“The Cubs’ asking price for Bryant is a joke,” said a former big league GM. “They want nearly ready major league talent at the level of a Gleyber Torres type or close and there is no chance a team is going to give them a package of those caliber of players.”

While this could be another case of someone too close to the team overvaluing what he brings to the table, that’s not how I look at it. Injuries in each of the past two campaigns have marred what would otherwise be a staggering start to a career.

Last year, despite a season-ending injury in late September, Bryant bounced back nicely after a 2018 campaign where he played hurt more often than not and his performance reflected as much. In 2019, he appeared in 147 games, hitting 31 home runs with a .903 OPS – as well as a .382 on-base percentage.

He can play third, first and both corner outfield spots – something that could become critical if the Cubs look to pivot toward whichever of the two NL West clubs vying for Mookie Betts come up short in their efforts. 

So pardon me if Theo Epstein has a high asking price. We’re talking about a player just three years removed from winning National League MVP honors. You cannot, under any circumstance, trade him just two get under the luxury tax threshold and hope some of the B-list prospects that come back your way happen to pan out.

(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: How are you going to replace his production?

Look, let’s just admit it. If the Cubs trade Bryant, there’s no way they replace his level of production in the lineup, especially when he’s healthy. From 2015 to 2017, he averaged 6.9 Fangraphs WAR. That number ticked off in his injury-ravaged 2018 season and he bounced back to a respectable 4.8 clip last season, despite some nagging ailments.

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Take him out of the equation. To whom do you turn? David Bote seems like the likeliest alternative, although he may very well be the starting second baseman if Chicago opts to have Nico Hoerner open the year at Triple-A Iowa for some more seasoning. Moving Bote to third means you’re looking at Robel Garcia or Daniel Descalso starting at second – which hardly seems ideal.

Even Bote, who could be controlled through his age-33 season in 2026 if the Cubs exercised the pair of team options on the back end, leaves something to be desired. In his two big league seasons to date, he’s put up 1.0 and 1.5 WAR, respectively, never appearing in more than 127 games, which he did in 2019.

Projections are hardly optimistic on Bote, either – which further reinforces the question at hand: how does trading Kris Bryant make you a better team? Sure, it might keep you from bottoming out after the 2021 season. But that also assumes the talent you get in any hypothetical deal pans out in a measurable way.

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Trading Bryant might get you under the luxury tax threshold and reset penalties next season. It might keep you from being a last-place team once this current core hits free agency in a couple years, too. But it might also mean settling for mediocrity, where the Cubs become a .500 team and the fanbase looks back on the trade asking itself ‘what if’ for years to come.

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