Chicago Cubs: Dallas Keuchel should be a rotation target

Chicago Cubs: Finding a nice balance

In each of the 2014 and 2015 seasons, Keuchel finally began to find his groove on the mound, and those two seasons resulted in back to back under three ERA’s as well as a 20-win season in 2015. The following season the lefty experienced a significant setback. He failed to make 30 starts and finished with a porous 4.55 ERA.

Keuchel bounced back and earned an All-Star nod in 2017, working to a 2.90 ERA in 23 starts. The unfortunate spot on the year was how much luck was involved with Keuchel’s production. He stranded baserunners at 79.9 percent and saw a jump in his HR/FB rate as it rose to 21.1 percent. Neither very good.

The key for him in 2020 is his ability to find a healthy balance. Since his 20-win season, Keuchel has averaged a 3.77 ERA in 102 starts. It has been good enough for a 110 ERA+, meaning he has been ten percent better than the league average of the previous four years. Overall, and for the Cubs, especially, it will come down to dollars.