Chicago Cubs: Dallas Keuchel should be a rotation target

The Chicago Cubs require a rotation upgrade this offseason. Is Dallas Keuchel the man to call upon to replace the outgoing veteran Cole Hamels?

As we are now officially past Thanksgiving and into December, the Major League Baseball offseason is in full swing. We have already seen a few significant shifts occur, and of course, there are expected to be many more in the coming weeks.

One of the pressing matters with the Cubs is their starting rotation. As intriguing and fun of a notion as it is to imagine the likes of Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg in Cubbie blue, it is not a reality.

However, do not fret Cubs fans because there is still hope in the form of rotational help. Sure, he is nowhere as flashy as the latter two who were just mentioned, but the track record speaks for itself. I’m talking, of course, about Dallas Keuchel.

Chicago Cubs: A rocky beginning, of sorts

The cream of the starting pitching crop is undoubtedly Cole and Strasburg. Following those two is New York Mets starter Zack Wheeler. After that, its Madison Bumgarner and Keuchel, both of whom still can provide value at their price to any respective team.

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Keuchel has had a relatively stable career up to this point. In 202 starts, spanning precisely 1,302 innings, the veteran lefty carries a 3.67 ERA with a 3.80 FIP and 3.52 xFIP, respectively. A former seventh-round selection by the Houston Astros in 2009, Keuchel was all over the place on the mound during his rise to the Show.

While Keuchel excelled in his first professional season Low-A, things got worse before they got better. He saw his ERA rise with each subsequent next level of baseball, and within two years, reached Triple-A; however, unfortunately, he posted a 7.50 ERA in his first stint.

Things were much better the following year, and in 2012, Keuchel made his Astros debut. His first time around the league was not pretty, as Keuchel pitched to the tune of a 5.27 ERA with a 10.1 percent strikeout rate and a 10.3 percent walk rate. The 2013 campaign was much of the same, and it would not be until the following year where Keuchel would get his bearings straight.

Chicago Cubs: Finding a nice balance

In each of the 2014 and 2015 seasons, Keuchel finally began to find his groove on the mound, and those two seasons resulted in back to back under three ERA’s as well as a 20-win season in 2015. The following season the lefty experienced a significant setback. He failed to make 30 starts and finished with a porous 4.55 ERA.

Keuchel bounced back and earned an All-Star nod in 2017, working to a 2.90 ERA in 23 starts. The unfortunate spot on the year was how much luck was involved with Keuchel’s production. He stranded baserunners at 79.9 percent and saw a jump in his HR/FB rate as it rose to 21.1 percent. Neither very good.

The key for him in 2020 is his ability to find a healthy balance. Since his 20-win season, Keuchel has averaged a 3.77 ERA in 102 starts. It has been good enough for a 110 ERA+, meaning he has been ten percent better than the league average of the previous four years. Overall, and for the Cubs, especially, it will come down to dollars.