Chicago Cubs: Top three signs the team isn’t in decline
After three disappointing ends to productive seasons, the latest media reports say the Chicago Cubs team is in decline, all evidence to the contrary.
Recently there have been reports indicating the Chicago Cubs are in a gentle decline and I couldn’t disagree more. To say Chicago is in decline because they have struggled to get into the postseason the past two years is not a fair assessment of what this group has done and is capable of doing.
Reporting also points to the fact that because the team decided to invest in developing players already on the roster, Theo Epstein and the front office ignored traditional player development and so spent millions in free agency. Reports say that for all that investment, the club didn’t even make the 2019 postseason.
While all of these assumptions are true, it doesn’t mean the Cubs are in decline, it just means they want to win and are leaving no stone unturned in the path to a second championship. Even the reporting that tries to sell the fact that the Cubs are going down the tube can’t accept its own premise by admitting that “decline” can take a while.
No kidding. That kind of logic sounds a lot like the forecast last season that Cubs were to come in dead last. After a 95-win season two years ago and an 84-win season this year, how can Chicago ever escape this downward spiral?
Yes, that’s sarcasm folks.
The truth is, the club has had strong performances since 2016 and the fact that the team have been just a few games out of postseason contention the past couple of years proves what a potent team the Chicago Cubs continue to be in their division and in Major League Baseball. So without further ado, here are the top three signs that the team isn’t in decline.
Chicago Cubs: Let the bats do the talking
One of my old coaches used to say, “If they don’t believe you can do it, show them the stats.” In the case of the reported “declining Cubs” a simple look at team statistics should tell us how close to the truth these reports really are.
Let’s take batting statistics to start off the rebuttal. In order to prove a decline scenario, I would say you need a good three years of stats to justify your claim. The Cubs numbers just do not support the claim of a decline. In 2017, the Cubs team recorded 1,402 hits. In 2018, the Cubs hits went up to 1,453. So there was an increase in hits. In 2019, the team’s hit total dropped to 1,378 – marking the first major downturn in production.
However, if you are only looking at hits, you’ll miss the rest of the picture. For instance, home runs went from 167 in 2018 to 256 this past season. Those 256 dingers an all-time franchise record. In fact, only five other times since 1867 have the Cubs even reached the 200-mark in home runs.
Of course that many dingers also produced an increase in runs scored for the team from 2018 to 2019 as the Cubs went from 761 runs in 2018 to 814 this past season.
Chicago has not had a problem putting wood on the ball as much as situational hitting where they are trying to score players already on base. This stat is represented in the on-base percentage for the Cubs the past three years, which shows a steady decline since 2017.
The offense is certainly one sign that the Cubs are not in a decline. That being said, the team needs to increase positive momentum with better situational hitting in 2020 and get more players on base to make another run for the postseason. But there are more signs on this team that it is on an upswing as opposed to a decline.
Chicago Cubs: Let the pitching do the talking
Cubs pitching has been a mixed bag from year to year. Year over year, the team’s earned run average climbed from 3.96 to 4.10 in 2019. That might not be a huge increase, but it’s one statistic that shows a decline of sorts.
However, there are a number of figures that show team pitching has done very well and is in fact flourishing. For example, last season the Cubs 100 more strikeouts (1,444) than they did in 2018 (1,333).
Chicago saw its bullpen woes come back to haunt them late in the year. The club managed only 38 saves – eight fewer than the year prior. That might not seem like much, but those eight games could have been enough to punch the team’s postseason ticket.
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Next season’s bullpen is starting to look really interesting. Remember the two-year, $21 million dollar man, Brandon Morrow? Oh you thought he was gone? Interestingly enough, Morrow and his agent know he’s got nowhere to go except home so why not take a team-friendly minor league deal?
The right-hander was lethal in his day and if he’s so close to being back, why not add him to the mix? If Craig Kimbrel can’t finish one or needs a blow, Morrow could be called up given his late-inning experience.
This is the two punch Epstein had hoped would come to fruition last season, but Morrow never finished his recovery. Now Epstein can be creative and has already traded with The Athletics for right-handed pitcher Jharel Cotton, who hasn’t pitched in the Show since 2017 but supposedly has a “knockout changeup“.
We haven’t even gotten into how good Cubs pitcher Yu Darvish is now or even Jose Quintana‘s impressive performances. Epstein, like other leadership around the league, prides himself on putting together a quality pitching squad capable of dominating. It hardly ever happens like that and there is constant massaging throughout the season but knowing that this is a point of pride, you can expect the Cubs pitching to be on the upswing next season as opposed to a decline.
Chicago Cubs: Let the manager do the talking
The last sign that things are not in decline for the Cubs is that everyone in the organization has been energized by the hiring of new manager and World Series Game 7 hero, David Ross. Ross was already a member of the front office and made such an impression to the leadership and ownership that it was Ross’ job to lose.
Because the fans already know and love Ross, there’s not many questions or second-guessing (yet) of the new North Side skipper. Initially the tides of opinion were saying he didn’t have enough manager or bench coach experience to stand at the helm. Of course, once the decision is made all that talk just goes by the wayside since none of the critics are paying his salary.
With everyone so energized over the new leadership choice of Ross, once again the expectations are rising and the rumblings around those fireplaces in Chicago is that the team wants to be in the thick of it again next year and will be hot come spring.
With all the investigations going on in baseball, you never know which of the Cubs opponents might be affected and change the dynamic of competition next season. As long as the Cubs are “clean” and are not running from a “say it isn’t so, Joe,” type-moment of their own that we don’t know about, then that’s another positive for our team.
It seems that the Cubs players are energized over Ross and with a new captain of the ship, things are definitely on the upswing.