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Chicago Cubs: A fourth contender could emerge in the NL Central
It appears that the Cincinnati Reds want to be aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason. Could this be a problem for the Chicago Cubs in 2020?
For the past few years, the Chicago Cubs have gotten used to battling the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals for supremacy in the National League Central division. Yet if the early returns from this offseason are any indication, there may be a fourth team that emerges as a legitimate contender in this division.
MLB Trade Rumors indicated the Cincinnati Reds are willing to give consideration to signing players who rejected qualifying offers this offseason, though it would mean losing their third-highest draft pick in the 2020 amateur draft. The article reports that the Reds want to focus on upgrading their offense this winter, and among those players who rejected offers are Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon and Marcell Ozuna.
The site already predicted the Reds would sign both catcher Yasmani Grandal and infielder Didi Gregorius, two of MLBTR’s top 12 free agents. It’s also been reported elsewhere that the Reds are going to pursue Grandal, while the Yankees are not expected to heavily pursue Gregorius, which could open the door to the Reds bringing him on. It’s even been reported that the Reds are interested in – and I know Cubs fans don’t want to hear this – Nicholas Castellanos.
The Reds would not be involved in all these rumors unless they believed both that they are close to contending and that they have a realistic chance to acquire some premium free agent talent. After six straight years of finishing under .500, will the Reds be a threat to the Cubs and to the rest of the NL Central in 2020? Let’s take a look at their chances.
Chicago Cubs: Are the Reds already contenders?
The Chicago Cubs should know firsthand how pesky the Reds were last season, as they went just 8-11 against their old division rival in 2019. Overall, the Reds went 75-87 this past season, their best showing in five years, while their run differential was only -10. They improved over the previous few years largely because of their pitching, which ranked eighth in the majors in ERA.
If the Reds pitch in 2020 as they did in 2019, there’s a good chance they’ll be a contender. Sonny Gray was outstanding for them in 2019, while Luis Castillo emerged as a solid starter. The team even tried to strengthen their starting pitching by trading for Trevor Bauer during the 2019 season, as they sent Yasiel Puig to the Cleveland Indians (though Bauer was terrible for the Reds down the stretch).
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The offense needs improvement, but the Reds do have some pieces to work with. Of course, there’s Joey Votto, who’s coming off a rough year but has a long track record of success. Eugenio Suarez is coming off a monster season. And Aristides Aquino and Nick Senzel appear to have bright futures.
Still, they could use another outfielder, which is why Castellanos and Ozuna have come up as possibilities. Plus, with Jose Iglesias becoming a free agent and a disappointing season from Jose Peraza, they’ll look to improve their middle infield, which is why Gregorius has come up. And the Grandal rumors are swirling because the team believes it needs to upgrade at catcher over Tucker Barnhart.
Clearly, the team believes it is close enough to contention that they could get there with a couple of splashes in the free agent market. It also appears they have the money to spend and are willing to do so. Does this mean that the Cubs – and the rest of the NL Central – should be worried?
Chicago Cubs: Should the rest of the NL Central be worried?
Of the three free agents who rejected a qualifying offer listed above, only Ozuna is an option for the Reds, as Donaldson and Rendon are third basemen and the Reds are set there with Suarez. The Reds have been linked to Ozuna, along with Castellanos, Grandal and Gregorious. They won’t sign all of them, but if they sign one or two of them, that will serve as a significant upgrade for their offense on a team that is already solid in the pitching department.
The contrast between the Reds’ position and the Cubs’ is striking. While the Cubs have almost no room to add payroll, meaning among other things that they’ll likely lose Castellanos, the Reds have room to add payroll and don’t seem concerned about losing a draft pick. This is in spite of the fact that their farm system has taken a hit over the past year.
Since the NL Central already has three teams trying to contend in 2020, we have to admire the Reds’ courage. Although, the timing could be ripe for them to go for it in 2020, since there was no elite team in this division in 2019; the division champion Cardinals only won 91 games.
Next. Avoiding the pitfalls of a big market atmosphere. dark
Despite everything that’s been said above, the Reds still have a long way to go to be considered contenders; after all, they haven’t had a winning season since 2013. Still, they appear to be in a good position to take a giant step forward in 2020, and if things go well for them this offseason, they’ll be a candidate to win the division. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers all have reason to be concerned.