Chicago Cubs: What happens if Yu Darvish elects to opt out of his contract?

If Yu Darvish chooses to opt out of the remaining four years of his contract, the Chicago Cubs could face some harrowing decisions this offseason.

Even as recently as the All-Star Break, there was literally no chance we’d even be discussing whether or not Yu Darvish would consider opting out of his contract. But given the lack of impact starting pitchers on the free agent market (aside from Gerrit Cole) and his second-half dominance, it’s become a very real question for the Chicago Cubs.

Cole headlines this winter’s crop of arms, joined by the likes of Dallas Keuchel, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler and Jake Odorizzi. Stephen Strasburg could join that mix as well, by opting out, which would undoubtedly make this group, as a whole, far more appealing.

But if you’re Darvish, you know that there are questions surrounding a lot of these guys Keuchel didn’t debut for Atlanta until the end of June after waiting till the season started to sign a deal with the Braves – a victim of this new-look free agency that’s wreaked havoc on players in recent years. Even when he joined Atlanta, he managed a lackluster 4.72 FIP in 19 starts – the worst since his rookie year.

Bumgarner has a ton of innings on his left arm (he ranks 18th among active pitchers – and is the only person on that list under the age of 30) – and it’s still not out of the question the San Francisco Giants look to bring back their franchise icon. He hits the big 3-0 next August, so he’s no doubt going to attract plenty of attention this winter given his tremendous postseason resume – not to mention he’s made at least 30 starts in all but two of the last nine years.

Chicago Cubs would need an impact arm to pair with Hendricks

So, for argument’s sake, let’s take Darvish out of the picture. Assume he opts out and decides to test the water. I know, it seems pretty unlikely, despite his lights-out performance down the stretch, but it’s not totally impossible.

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Kyle Hendricks immediately moves up to the top spot on the staff – no questions asked. Last season, the soft-tossing righty pitched like a Cy Young candidate at the Friendly Confines and like a journeyman fifth starter on the road, so there are concerns there.

After that, it’s two pretty underwhelming left-handers in Jon Lester and Jose Quintana. The former pitched like Father Time started to have his hands around his neck and the latter was horrendously inconsistent – especially when it mattered most (11.09 ERA in five September starts).

That’s it. Cole Hamels is a free agent and, without Darvish, Theo Epstein would need not only two arms to add to this mix – but they’d need to be top-tier options, as well. On paper, the Cubs don’t match up with the other premier NL clubs when it comes to their rotation. Stopgap options like throwing Tyler Chatwood in there and expecting quality isn’t going to cut it.

Granted, you’d have money off the books if Darvish walked. But given what he did for the team in the second half, losing him would make me feel a whole lot more uneasy heading into 2020. Without him, you almost have to go all-in on a Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg-type arm and given the team’s other shortcomings, I don’t know how likely that would be regardless.

Hopefully, we’re just kicking around ideas for no reason at all. Like I said, I think at the end of the day, Darvish stays and looks to build on his 2019 successes. If not, what already should be a high-stakes offseason would only be that much more intense for Chicago Cubs fans and the front office.