How do the Chicago Cubs fix the leadoff spot in 2020?
Ever since the departure of outfielder Dexter Fowler, the top spot for the Chicago Cubs has been an abyss of futility, leaving a glaring hole in the lineup.
“You go, we go.” That was the mantra of 2015 and 2016 when it came to the leadoff spot for the Cubs. With Dexter Fowler occupying that spot on a regular basis, Cubs’ skipper Joe Maddon didn’t have to mix and match or play match-ups. In Fowler, Maddon had a guy who would work at bats, get on base regularly, and even provide a little pop every once in a while. To paraphrase Robin Williams from Good Will Hunting, “Fowler wasn’t perfect and the Chicago Cubs weren’t perfect, but they were perfect together.”
Over the course of his two seasons in Chicago, Fowler provided the spark for what was the greatest offensive club the Cubs have had in most fan’s lifetimes. The problem is, ever since the Cubs let him walk on down to Boringtown after the 2016 season to collect his $82 million, the Cubs’ leadoff spot has been a different kind of offensive. Like, the stinky kind.
In those two years on the North Side, Fowler played 281 games, scored 186 runs, hit 54 doubles, 15 triples, and 30 home runs. He also swiped 33 bags and had a .367 OBP. He was 20th in all of baseball in 2015 in pitches per plate appearance, seeing an average of 4.08. In 2016, he upped that to fourth in the league, seeing 4.40 per plate appearance. Not surprisingly, the Cubs as a whole led the league in pitches per plate appearance in 2015 and were fourth as a team in 2016.
Also not a shock was what happened when they didn’t have Fowler at the top. In 2017, the Cubs as a team plummeted to league average at 3.90, good for 16th in baseball. In 2018, things got worse, as the number dropped to 26th at 3.83. In 2019, the Cubs have climbed back to league average at 3.90, good for 20th in baseball.
While you can’t take one number in a box and extrapolate everything you want out of it, it is one indicator that the lineup is suffering and not working at bats in the same way since Fowler left. How much was his doing and the ups and downs of others can only be speculative, but the lineup was better at working pitchers and seeing pitches when he was on top- that much is undeniable. Just look at what happened this year without a consistently solid guy atop the scorecard.
Chicago Cubs: Productive in other spots, these two didn’t cut it leading off
With all due respect to the greatest leadoff hitter in history, Anthony Rizzo, none of the hitters who have been with the Cubs the last few years is an answer at the top of the lineup. Rizzo has had the most success there in limited duty, and his career .373 OBP would be great. However, his ability to drive the ball, knock in runs, and hit balls out of the park sort of necessitates him being in the middle of the lineup rather than leading everything off and hitting behind a pitcher.
Ditto for Kris Bryant, who also gets on at an elite rate, with a .385 career OBP. While Bryant has the added speed on the bases you’d like to see from the leadoff spot that Rizzo does not, having him in the two or three slot seems to be the most logical and productive spot for him.
Kyle Schwarber, who has spent significant time over the course of two different seasons in the leadoff spot (2017 and then earlier this year), also has proven to be a bit out-of-place there. While his 2019 encore was decidedly better than his 2017 audition, most of his damage came from slugging from the leadoff spot, not getting on base. In fact, his .304 OBP from leadoff is 20 points lower than his mark for the season, meaning he was about 30-40 points lower than usual from that spot.
Jason Heyward also took his turn in the leadoff spot despite not being real keen on it in the past. Based on the results, I’m sure we can all figure out why. Heyward put up an abysmal .252 OBP from the leadoff spot despite his 2019 on base mark of .346 and career .343 OBP. Don’t ask me how something like that is even possible, but it would seem the current Cubs (other than Rizzo) just don’t like being there or there’s a curse at work (and now Rizzo is hurt, for the record).
Ben Zobrist did a nice job out of the leadoff spot at times last year (.371 OBP) and since he’s been back from leave in 2019 (.370), but he’s not under contract in 2020 and he wouldn’t play every day even if the Cubs find a way to bring him back for another year. They need a consistent and productive answer to the leadoff problem.
Chicago Cubs: Could Nico be auditioning for the leadoff role for 2020?
While it would be nice if the Cubs could look internally for options, the pickings might be a bit slim when it comes to options already in the system. Given that most of the positions (other than 2B and maybe CF) are probably in good shape, it would be hard for some guys to bust through the system to become the leadoff hitter for a contending team in 2020.
Basically the only possible option from inside the current organization (if the assumption is the players already discussed are not going to be tried again) is the 22-year-old who was just brought up to play shortstop in the middle of a pennant race. Nico Hoerner, the middle infielder with intangibles galore, might just have the chops and mentality for leading things off, but would the Cubs pull the trigger on the idea?
We don’t have a ton of sample size to go on here, but Hoerner put up a .365 OBP in roughly half a year of at bats at the minor league level. What’s more impressive however, is that he walked and struck out at roughly the same rate (31 BB/36K). We’ve also seen his penchant for making contact and putting the ball in play when he needs to at the big league level over the past week. If Hoerner can continue to work good at bats, get hits, walk, and hit the ball hard consistently, why wouldn’t he be an option?
The bottom line is that it’s doubtful the organization would try to solve this ongoing three-year problem with a rookie, regardless of how great he has been so far and might end up being. It’s more than likely they’ll look to address the problem of a leadoff man outside of the organization, either in the form of a second baseman or center fielder realistically.
Chicago Cubs: You’ve heard this guy’s name a few times
Take a look at the list of soon-to-be free agents to pick from this offseason. Lots of talent, great hitters, great pitchers. What you don’t see is a bona fide leadoff guy who plays second base or center field whom the Cubs could sign and regularly pencil into that spot. While there are several quality players who are similar to those Maddon has tried plugging into that spot, there doesn’t seem to be a good fit among the top free agents who will be available.
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Sure, we could sign Anthony Rendon to a monster deal or even someone like 37-year-old Brett Gardner on a one or two-year deal. Problem is Rendon isn’t any more a leadoff guy than Bryant, Schwarber, or Rizzo are. You’d also have a logjam of corner outfielders and musical chairs in the infield. Gardner, while he could have filled that role 10 years ago and still might be valuable in some capacity, isn’t an everyday leadoff guy at this point in his career and only has a .326 OBP this year anyhow.
There’s a slight possibility Washington wouldn’t pick up their option on outfielder Adam Eaton, who sports a career .363 OBP, but that’s a pretty unlikely scenario considering they’re contenders themselves and he’s not that expensive at $9.5 million in 2020.
With a dearth of viable options available in free agency, the Cubs would seemingly have to attack this glaring hole via trade. Problem is, if you scroll through the OBP leaders this year (we are trying to solve the on-base problem, right?), you’ll see a bunch of sluggers, young guys who will be extremely expensive to pry away in trade, and one hit wonders who remain question marks. Oh, and oft-rumored trade target Whit Merrifield.
Chicago Cubs: Could Tommy Pham be a trade target?
One of the first options that seems plausible in trade is Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Tommy Pham. Pham, as you’ll recall from his days in St. Louis, is a scrappy player who does a lot of things well. One of those things is getting on base, something he’s done well in his career and is continuing to do this year. With a .375 career and seasonal OBP, Pham would be a guy to put out feelers for in a trade.
In addition to taking his walks, Pham can also steal some bases and hit for a little power, averaging around 20 home runs per year. He is valuable and has two years of team-controlled arbitration left, so the price might sting a tad. He will be 32 next year and getting more expensive in arbitration for the thrifty Rays, both possible bargaining chips in the Cubs’ favor.
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Another target to kick the tires on is the guy many fans have been clamoring for the past couple years: Merrifield. While Merrifield would be a solid player to insert into the lineup and on the field defensively, he’s only had one great season out of three.
Granted, his .354 OBP this year is nothing to sneeze at (especially when stacked up against our leadoff output this season), but his defensive metrics have slipped this year and he will be 31 next season.
A late start to his MLB career and a body of work that only started blossoming recently sounds a lot like Pham, but the Royals have Merrifield locked up to a team-friendly deal that could last four more seasons.
In other words, the price in trade for Merrifield would be considerably steeper. With free agent and trade options looking like slim pickings, perhaps there’s a bigger splash to be made if the Cubs really want to transform the team and overtly address the leadoff spot next season.
Chicago Cubs: How great would it be to pair these two in the middle?
With another disappointing and inconsistent offensive year for the club as a whole, perhaps the front office would consider some bigger changes this offseason. One option to consider would be making a run at perennial MVP candidate (and already successful leadoff hitter) Francisco Lindor and teaming him with Javier Baez for the best middle infield combination in baseball. While Lindor is just 25 and Cleveland holds control over him for two more seasons, rumor has it that the sides haven’t been close in past extension talks.
Of course, the real question in regards to acquiring Lindor would be the cost. What’s the going rate for an MVP-caliber shortstop who is just 25? Probably pretty steep. If we could unload some prospects and some non-core MLB talent (think Ian Happ), would it be enough? Would the package of Hoerner, Happ, and one of Brailyn Marquez or Miguel Amaya get the job done? Would the Indians be interested in maligned Addison Russell to effectively replace his defense at short?
Would the Cubs include either Victor Caratini or Willson Contreras in a deal and go with the other as their starting catcher? Given the way he’s played this year, could Caratini be a big chip in a deal like this? Or, given the way he’s played, could he give the Cubs faith in trading away All-Star catcher Contreras and letting him assume the mantle of starting backstop?
I don’t know how strained the relationship is with Cleveland and Lindor, nor do I know how much they value chips the Cubs possess, but there are several MLB players and several prospects who would seem to be a starting point considering it could possibly give the Indians a few cost-controlled MLB players next season and another in a year or two.
There’s also the thought that a swapping of superstars might be a win-win for both teams if neither think they can (or want to) resign their respective stud. Lindor for Bryant may make Cubs’ fans queasy because they’d be losing a proven MVP and half of beloved tandem “Bryzzo,” but consider the fact that there is a free agent to-be we’ve already brought up (Rendon) who could fill that spot and make the Cubs’ infield other-worldly. Trade for Lindor, sign Rendon and bring back Nick Castellanos and the lineup would be a juggernaut. Unfortunately, the prospects for that pipe dream in terms of fiscal resources and trade likelihood are probably zilch.
The abyss of futility that is the Chicago Cubs’ leadoff spot has to come to an end before the 2020 season. Regardless of other moves being made, the leadoff hole needs to be addressed for a team that has a stacked middle of the lineup with five guys who have 30 home run potential. Whether it’s a trade, free agent signing, or diamond in the rough from within, it’s a need that must be met if the Cubs want to be contenders in 2020.