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Could the Chicago Cubs trade Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini this winter?
The Chicago Cubs will soon again boast one of the best catching tandems in the league. Could they deal from that position of strength come this winter?
To be clear, I’m not personally advocating a trade of either of the Chicago Cubs’ top catchers at this point in time. I want to keep both Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini because I think they’re really quality players and teammates to boot.
However, from a purely analytical and business standpoint, it would be ignorant and irresponsible to not look at roster construction or depth and consider how to make the team better. Even if that means trading away one of these two guys – both of whom seem to have a lot of talent.
One catcher on your team is a good thing, but two catchers are better. So much so that you almost need two dependable catchers if you want to be a contender and, more importantly, get through an MLB season. It’s probably the most demanding position in the sport, and it’s nearly impossible to play more than 130 games. Currently, only J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies is on pace to do so behind the dish this season.
Maybe I’m making the case for carrying two solid catchers as a necessity before I even get to the flip side of this argument, but there is another side. These types of catchers are at a premium in the majors- catchers who can frame and hit are a hot commodity. Team-controlled, cheap, and young(ish) guys who fit that bill are even more of a needle in a haystack.
With about half the teams in the league struggling with injuries or mediocre play at the catching position at any given time, someone’s bound to get a little bit desperate in the offseason looking to bolster their lineup with a long-term answer as catcher. Both of the Cubs’ backstops fit that bill, with each having their own strengths and weaknesses.
The question is: would the Cubs get more value out of their catchers by trading one away? We already know Willson Contreras is a bona fide MLB starting catcher. However, Victor Caratini‘s work this year has also catapulted him into a position where other front offices around the league might feel he could handle duties as a starting backstop. In fact, the numbers bear that out as well.
Would it be worth it for the Cubs to at least consider the idea of trading one or the other? Let’s get into it.
Chicago Cubs: Could the team moveon from their passionate catcher?
Currently, the Cubs employ Caratini and Jonathan Lucroy as catchers at the big league level while Contreras works his way back from the IL. They’ve also had Taylor Davis with the big club and Martin Maldonado caught a few games in between getting flipped for Mike Montgomery and then Tony Kemp at the deadline. Caratini and Contreras, though were the Opening Day guys and the point of this article. Contreras was the clear starter and star of the pair, having been an All-Star each of the past two seasons.
Contreras is 27 years old and Caratini is 26. Not that they’re old by any means, but catchers have a different shelf life than other players. At the MLB level, Contreras has logged 3003 innings squatting behind the plate in the last four seasons. Caratini, on the other hand, has considerably fewer miles on his knees at only 712 innings wearing the tools of ignorance.
The difference may be negligible to some, but that’s roughly two seasons worth of catching, at a position noted for wearing guys down in a hurry. Add to that the passion and reckless abandon with which Contreras plays, and it’s not a stretch to say Caratini might have a few more years left on his knees than Contreras does.
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In addition, Contreras has suffered through some injuries that make you question his susceptibility to more issues in the future. With two hamstring strains in three years, it’s fair to ask whether he has been overworked or if it’s the kind of thing he might aggravate at any point in time. Legs are a pretty important thing for a guy who has to bend them back and forth all day long and violently pop up from a squat numerous times during a game.
No one in Chicago would want to see Contreras go to a different club, but the haul for an All-Star catcher in his prime could be monstrous- especially given the free agent landscape the past two offseaons. Contreras would become the centerpiece of many clubs, brings a fire to the field, and plays the game with the enthusiasm many up-and-coming teams might be looking for. If the Cubs could pry away cost-controlled pitching from someone, maybe they would consider it.
Contreras is also entering his arbitration years, so the price for a guy who is the best hitting catcher and an already two-time All-Star will only escalate the next few years. Maybe the Cubs try and extend both players in the offseason and see where their demands are. If the price for Contreras is too steep, and they feel Caratini can handle the rigors of being “the guy” going forward, it could make the choice a lot easier.
Chicago Cubs: Has Caratini’s stock risen so much that he brings a huge return?
Coming into 2019, Victor Caratini was a still a bit of an unproven commodity both behind the plate and at the plate. He had only seen action in 107 total games at the MLB level, and gotten only 266 PA in those games. With an unimpressive slash line of .238/.303/.317 for an OPS+ of 65, no one was quite sure how Caratini would fit in for a contending club who seemed to need a more veteran presence more than another young guy.
Early in the season, it looked like Contreras had not only answered any questions about his qualifications, but was pushing for more time on a team with an All-Star already cemented at both positions he could play – first base and catcher. His early slash line of .571/.647/1.000 was creating a lot of buzz for a guy thought of as a backup. Alas, Caratini suffered a broken hamate bone in his left hand on April 11 and was out for a month.
When he came back, he struggled for about a month, putting up a .192/.288/.269 slash line from May 16 to June 22. However, since June 23, Caratini has been really solid. His slash line of .276/.361/.500 over the past two months speaks for itself, and it gets better since starting to play a bit more since Contreras went to the IL. Since August 7, Caratini has been on fire, boasting a .315/.393/.556 line that shows he’s clearly over the hand injury that slowed him earlier in the summer.
As a switch-hitter, Caratini doesn’t need to fit a platoon and he can also play first base. He also has been an excellent pitch framer this year, currently squatting at 11th in the majors. He has been worth 1.6 fWAR so far this season, 15th best in baseball. As a backup for most of the season.
If Caratini has turned enough heads in this breakout 2019, he could very well be an attractive proposition for other general managers looking to acquire a younger, cost-controlled backstop who can hit and catch. At just 26 with four more years of team control after this season, this guy might just be the most valuable commodity at catcher in all of baseball.
Maybe even ahead of his own teammate depending on how you’d value the injuries, extra wear-and-tear, and cost factor. While he would make up the best duo in baseball on the North Side of Chicago, he might just fetch more than the Cubs could turn down on the trade market this offseason.
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Regardless of their value and worth on the trade market, my hope is that both of these guys stick around a few more years on what seem likely to be really talented Cubs teams. You just can’t turn down winning trades if they present themselves and you have the chips to do it.