Chicago Cubs: What to make of Anthony Rizzo’s home run slump

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs slugger Anthony Rizzo has not been finding the seats in the last month or so, but it may not be something to think twice about.

The last time Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo hit a home run was on June 15 off Kenley Jansen at Dodger Stadium. This puts his home run-less streak at 26 games. His game-winning blast that night was home run number 19 on the year, which, at the time felt like he was on pace to shatter his career-high of 32 home runs. The Chicago slugger is one home run shy of seven straight 20-plus home run seasons.

So what is up with the power outage? Is it a slump? The truth of the matter is despite the lack of home runs, Rizzo has been red hot at the plate. Over the past 26 games which he has not homered, he has slashed .300/.407/.422 with nine doubles and a .830 OPS. In July alone he is slashing .386/.472/.568 with a 1.040 OPS.

A follow-up question to these numbers could be, is he just not hitting home runs because he has not been able to? Or is he exchanging some power for contact? Just looking at Rizzo’s career as a hitter and his approach it is very easy to theorize an exchange of power for contact is what we are seeing a lot of.

(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Rizzo’s approach and results

The first thing to always note when talking about Anthony Rizzo’s approach at the plate is his ability to choke up on the bat with two strikes. The fact that he is so good at putting the ball in play and having great at-bats by fighting off pitches down in the count alone is exchanging power for contact. It does not take an expert to know hitting for power is harder when choked up on the bat.

Yet, Rizzo has some tremendous power when he swings for the fences. We have seen some titanic blasts from him over the years and has hit 30 to 32 homers four times. It is probably safe to say that Rizzo could be a 40-plus home run guy if he sold out and sacrificed his average and on-base approach and swung for the fences more.

So looking at this particular stretch itself, contact numbers can tell a lot. In the month of July, Rizzo is hitting the ball the opposite way 34.3 percent of the time with 32.4 percent of batted balls being line drives and only 23.5 percent being flyballs. Over a full season, he goes oppo roughly 21 percent of the time and is 25.9 percent on the 2019 season. If the season ended today it would be a career-high. In terms of fly balls, he is roughly 38-41 percent on a year.

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: At the end of the day, worry should be minimal to none

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So let’s put it all together. He is going opposite field more and hitting more line drives and fewer fly balls over the month. Trying to go the other way and beat shifts is a recipe for more balls in play and fewer home runs. It all seems to add up.

Does that mean he is just giving up trying to hit home runs? Not at all, but he is just hitting for more contact because of the situations he has been in.

Of all the players on the Chicago Cubs roster, Rizzo should be the very last player to worry about. Every single year he puts up shockingly consistent numbers. Rizzo is currently hitting .285/.394/.525 with 19 homers and 138 wRC+ on the season. His cumulative slash from 2014-2018 is .282/.385/.512 and has averaged 30 homers and 140 wRC+ each season.

It is funny because Rizzo has been known to be very streaky over a 162-game season but it always ends with the similar numbers. One may be reminded of another left-handed former Cub first baseman, Mark Grace. While he was more of an average hitter and less of a home run hitter, he, like Rizzo, put up consistently good numbers every year.

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The home runs will come again, probably in bunches as they tend to with him. Knowing him he will probably end the season with 32 once again.

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