Chicago Cubs: Is Craig Kimbrel’s low velocity a warning sign?

While the Chicago Cubs signed Craig Kimbrel to step in and be their lock-down closer, the red-bearded right-hander has been working his way back into form while in the show, leading some to question whether he’s lost something.

Chicago Cubs‘ fans have been clamoring for a hard-throwing, lock-down closer (and specifically Craig Kimbrel after last season) ever since Brandon Morrow went down last year. Once they finally got Kimbrel after a quiet offseason and after the 2019 MLB Draft had passed, thus negating any restrictions on signing the elite closer, the expectation was that he would step right in and blow everyone away for save after save in close games. Wellllll, that’s not quite what has happened so far.

Although there are certainly reasons to point to in order to explain the sluggish velocity and lack of command at times on the knuckle-curve, it’s an anxious time for many fans, and the hot takes abound with anyone who signs for big money who doesn’t come in as a polished work of art immediately. This description could work for Kimbrel, who has been one of the best closers in baseball since he started closing in 2011. As he signed a three-year, $43 million deal, the heat is on for Kimbrel to perform and perform well.

The intimidating right-hander has yet to record a “clean” inning in four appearances (including last night’s save), and some were even worried about a dip in velocity after his appearance in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Averaging less than 95 mph on his fastball and topping out at only 96.1 mph, some warning flags started being raised for a guy who averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball just last season and at least 98 the three years prior.

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Not to mention, many consider Kimbrel’s drop in velocity to be a harbinger of what’s to come and a possible explanation for his struggles in the postseason last year. Petriello also notes that Kimbrel hadn’t had a game where his average fastball velocity was that low in six years.

Despite this dip in velocity compared to his norms, Kimbrel’s pure stuff still seems to be excellent and getting better. While his velocity was down in Pittsburgh, he was hitting 97 consistently and even lit up 98 in earning his second save of the season last night at Guaranteed Rate (Comiskey) Field.

His pitches seemed to have extra life and sharpness, his knuckle-curve had some extra bite, and even Len Kasper (on the national Fox broadcast) noted that it’s the best his stuff has looked since coming up this season.

This makes complete sense, as the guy didn’t even start pitching for a team until June 18th, just a little over two weeks ago. In essence, Kimbrel is in his Spring Training phase, regardless of whatever work and throwing he did to stay in shape while awaiting suitors and contract offers.

Throwing bullpens and hitting targets is one thing, but climbing the hill against real live hitters is another. Mix in the fact that he was still only throwing to Triple-A guys, and that Kimbrel’s first live-action against MLB hitters was on June 27th, and it makes sense that he’s a bit rusty.

Ramping up and working back into game shape means we can expect this minor dip in velocity to right itself and climb back up around that 97 mph range, right about where he was sitting last night in the game against the White Sox.

It also means the command of both that rising fastball and the sharp-breaking knuckle curve (that devastates hitters looking for cheese) should continue to get better and better as Kimbrel gets more consistent work going forward. And we can all be excited for our closer to get more consistent work… unless of course, you prefer blowout wins or the “screw the closer” game the Cubs played so well a few years ago.

While the minor drop in Kimbrel’s fastball velocity shouldn’t be alarming to patient and pragmatic fans, it’s understandable if everyone wants Kimbrel to succeed and lockdown every possible win for the Cubs going forward.

Just remember, though, that even when Kimbrel doesn’t have his best stuff, his mere presence is making guys like Pedro Strop and Steve Cishek even better, as they slide into their comfortable set-up roles, making the Cubs pen as a whole that much better by bumping everyone down an inning.