Chicago Cubs: The greatest leadoff hitter of all time is back

Once again the Chicago Cubs find themselves in a dilemma over their leadoff hitter.  If we can get past the idea of a ‘traditional’ leadoff man, it will help.

First, we need to get over the idea of the leadoff hitter.  Yes someone has to be the first batter.  But that’s only once per game. After that, it’s just a question of how many times you come up to bat. And that is the more important point, especially for the Chicago Cubs.

Looking at it from a sabermetric perspective tells you that the first spot in the order should be a high on-base percentage guy. By high OBP we’re talking about a minimum .365 OBP or better. Well of course you say.  Yes but not because he leads off the first inning,  It’s because he comes up more frequently than any other spot in the order.

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So who is not doing that OBP thing for the Cubs?  Daniel Descalso (.288), Albert Almora (.296), Jason Heyward (.353), David Bote (.355). and of course, Kyle Schwarber (.332) as my colleague Jake Misener pointed out this past Tuesday.

Digging a little deeper

Overall OBP is not the only metric that reveals who might be an effective one spot hitter.  When we look at OBP according to batting order something else is revealed.  Almora’s .296 overall OBP rises to a career .342 mark in the one hole.

For that spot, it’s the best career OBP of three of the five players mentioned above.  Yes, Bote is at .400 but that’s in only six games so that is far too small a sample size.  So that’s promising for Almora but still not quite good enough.

Who’s batting first

So, with Anthony Rizzo leading off (at least on Friday), is he the guy?  His career overall OBP is .370 so he gets over that minimum OBP qualifier.  And when you look at his career OBP from the first spot in the order, a solid .409 entering this series, the case can be made he’s one player who can fill that role.  In fact, Rizzo’s .409 OBP in the one spot is his highest of any spot in the order.

But he’s not the only one.  Kris Bryant‘s career OBP of .487 and a respectable .387 in the one spot could place him in that role.  But that’s not his best spot by far.  Batting second his slash of .295/.396/.536 makes him too valuable elsewhere in the line-up.

Not the picture in your head of a leadoff man

Rizzo certainly cuts against the eye candy test for a leadoff hitter.  He’s not a base stealer, but who is on the Cubs?  He’s not fast nor the most proficient base runner and so probably hurts a little on the first to third that the Cubs value so much.

But he only leads off once.  And that’s the key.  In the one spot, Rizzo will come up to bat more than any other player in the line-up.  What’s not to like about that?

In addition, his career slash in the one spot of .317/.409/.587 for an OPS of .996 is his best slash anywhere in the lineup. So, crazy enough as it seems, batting Rizzo first works.  It works really well. Here’s to Anthony Rizzo, the greatest leadoff hitter of all time.