Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant should be in attack mode early

Despite a stellar Spring Training that seemed to bode well for Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, the hits have been hard to come by in 2019.

In 20 games, the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant is hitting just .220, with a .351 slugging percentage and one homer. Bryant’s walk rate (12.1) is solid, and the strikeouts have been mitigated after a run of whiffs at the end of last season. But the absence of power has fans concerned about Bryant’s hitting potential, and whether or not the shoulder injury that hampered him last season is still taking a toll.

However, this current power outage may be coming as a result of Bryant’s relative timidity at the plate. According to FanGraphs, over 43 percent of the pitches made to Bryant this season have been in the strike zone, the highest percentage of his career. Additionally, pitchers are attacking him early, throwing first-pitch strikes at nearly a 63 percent clip. Despite this, Bryant’s swing percentage (46.1) is below his career average.

In other words, it would appear that the rest of the league is slowly beginning to adjust to Kris Bryant. Now, Bryant must adjust in turn.

Hitting with two strikes too often

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Bryant has been in a two-strike count in 46 of his 91 plate appearances this year. His batting average in those counts is a combined .105, with a .211 slugging percentage. Of course, hitting with two strikes is already hard enough, but that struggle is amplified when opposing pitchers are making more concerted efforts to attack the zone early.

Making matters worse, Bryant has been susceptible on the inner and outer half of the plate with two strikes, according to ESPN Hot Zones. Opponents have worked both low and in as well down on the outer half, with the option for coming upstairs with the fastball.

And indeed, Bryant has seen a massive uptick in fastballs, with opposing pitchers throwing him four-seamers at a 43.2 percent rate, according to FanGraphs. Whereas he used to crush fastballs (see 2016), his runs above average against the pitch has steadily declined over the last two seasons.

Is it possible that Bryant is simply guessing too much? He got a pair of hanging breaking balls in two-strike counts against the Dodgers on Tuesday night but popped out both times.

Bryant’s struggles against the fastball combined with pitchers getting more aggressive should lead to him doing the same; especially early in counts. As if he needed any more evidence, his greatest success has come in 1-0 and 0-1 counts, and the rest of the team as a whole are struggling to attack early and battle in two-strike counts.

Thinking middle-pull

This season, nearly 33 percent of Bryant’s batted balls have gone to the opposite field, according to FanGraphs. Compare this to his MVP season in 2016, when 19.7 percent of batted balls were to the opposite field, and over 80 percent were to the pull side or up the middle. What happened that year? He hit 39 homers.

And while the 2018 contact distribution is similar to the 2016 season after Bryant seemed to make a more concerted effort to spread the ball around in 2017, it is important to remember that the shoulder injury played a significant role in the lack of success, hence the 18.9 percent soft contact rate.

So, why is a healthy Kris Bryant not thinking “pull” more often? It is evident that his power alley is left to center, and the Cubs need him to be a run-producer, shifts be damned.

Besides, thinking fastball early in counts and adjusting to off-speed would naturally yield more of a middle-pull approach, which might be precisely what Bryant needs to get it going.

There is no question that Bryant still has the talent to be one of the best hitters in the game. But he must commit to a more aggressive approach if he hopes to find some renewed confidence.

*Stats correct as of 4/24/19