Chicago Cubs: Why fans wanted Kyle Schwarber to play on Opening Day

Chicago Cubs fans were perplexed, annoyed or flat-out enraged by the Opening Day lineup for one reason: fan favorite slugger Kyle Schwarber wasn’t in it.

Some pundits and fans want to paint the idea of lineup construction and “platooning” as a manager’s decision that should never be questioned. That rings particularly true when discussing Chicago Cubs skipper Joe Maddon, who’s perhaps the foremost leader in mixing and matching on a daily basis.

Some fans love questioning decisions on Monday morning from their recliners or office chairs; it’s literally the reason I’m writing this and why sportswriters, analysts and most television personalities have jobs. So, while I’m going to write about the second-guessing of one decision that may seem trivial, I don’t think the sky is falling.

I don’t want to get rid of Maddon as manager of the Cubs. In fact, if I were Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer or Tom Ricketts, I would have extended the forward-thinking skipper yesterday. He’s a great manager and I’m glad he’s ours. Zoos and all.

Philosophical differences in terms of strategy and lineup construction derive from a couple of different places. Numbers and statistics drive differences for sure. Emotions motivate others. There’s also an old versus new-school approach in terms of rest and platooning.  The thing is, if Maddon thinks his best chance to win is with Mark Zagunis starting, he might not be wrong.

Conversely, if I think it’s with Kyle Schwarber, I’m not necessarily wrong either (although, I don’t get to fill out the lineup card, admittedly). Things may or may not work out, but the beauty of it is that we will never truly know which way was right. Or, maybe that’s the awful part; I’m not really sure.

Regardless, there are reasons fans were a bit unhinged or, at the very least, unbalanced, regarding the Schwarber decision on Opening Day. Here is why it may have been a big deal (and also why it will continue to be a big deal) for a lot of people, even if it’s a non-issue for others.

Chicago Cubs: Not at Wrigley, but still Opening Day nonetheless

Opening Day is a day to put your best players on the field. It was a looooooongggg offseason for Cubs fans. If there’s any day where they should see the best hitters the club has to offer put on the field, it’s the first game of the season.

As I mentioned, Chicago went with Zagunis over Schwarber in left field on Opening Day. He’s a nice bench guy who has always shown the ability to get on base, but entering the season, he carried a whopping 21 big league at-bats into action.

Part of the reason he made the team’s Opening Day roster derived from the club’s decision to send Ian Happ to Triple-A to start the season. Oh, and he had a really nice spring. However, we sat one of our best hitters on Opening Day so that a guy who won’t spend the whole season in Chicago could start for a “matchup” advantage.

Look, Zagunis had a big hit and drove in a run. The whole point of this isn’t to point to individual happenings and say, “look-see, I told you so.” That’s not logical at all. Just because Zagunis did or didn’t do well, it doesn’t take into account what Schwarber would have done in the exact same spot. Or a different spot, because the lineup would have been constructed differently, no doubt.

This is why the platoon kerfuffle is unending- there’s no way to say who’s right and who’s wrong because even if things go well (they did on Thursday), it doesn’t mean Schwarber wouldn’t have done the same exact thing, or more, or less. It’s about the philosophy behind it and the fact that this will happen again because of that same philosophy.

Sitting one of your best hitters because of this idea might not be the logical thing to do, even if it works out well some times because, well, baseball.

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber is, in fact, a really good hitter

Regardless of how you slice it, Kyle Schwarber is one of the best hitters on this Cubs roster. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist are better and more accomplished hitters at this juncture. Javier Baez is a freak of nature and does his damage like Vladimir Guerrero used to.

Schwarber is coming off a rebound campaign, of sorts. After a dismal 2017 showing, he transformed his body and elevated his all-around game. Last year, he hit 26 long-balls and put up a 115 OPS+ over the course of 137 ballgames. Essentially, what I’m saying is he’s on the up-and-up.

So, taking those four out of the equation, Kyle Schwarber can be no worse than the fifth-best hitter on the Chicago Cubs. Shouldn’t you have your fifth-best hitter playing, especially in American League-style ball where you have the benefit of a ninth hitter?

Of course, you should. This is an easy question and an easy answer. If you’re going to platoon someone, do it with someone else, because you don’t take one of your best hitters out of the lineup. Now that Kyle Schwarber is an improved fielder as well, this is even more of a no-brainer.

Chicago Cubs: Joe Maddon loves to tinker

This isn’t anything new. We all know Maddon is going to tinker and play matchups. The tinkering seems to have yielded positive results for most of his four years with the Cubs. But why does he have to tinker with Schwarber specifically?

In my mind, there are two positions that likely need such attention right now: second base and centerfield. With Ian Happ down in Iowa to start the year, you can argue the Cubs should have as close to a set lineup for a month or so as they have ever had under Maddon.

Give Almora a day off and put Heyward in center, give Schwarber a day off when he needs it (preferably against a lefty throwing 95+, not Mike Minor), give Contreras days off as needed and rotate David Bote and Ben Zobrist in as you see fit.

Daniel Descalso and Zagunis can be the guys to spell them and you can move around other guys and adjust as needed. Quite honestly though, Zagunis and Descalso are bench pieces, not everyday players with the potential to hit 40 home runs and transform an offense.

Maddon doesn’t tinker with Bryant. He doesn’t tinker with Baez now (not that he could anyhow since he is the only true shortstop we have on the roster). He doesn’t tinker with Rizzo. Schwarber should be in the same group. How could he be in the same group if he doesn’t hit lefties as well as Rizzo, you ask? Well, once upon a time, Anthony Rizzo was the same guy Kyle Schwarber is today.

Chicago Cubs: You can’t make adjustments if you don’t get chances to do so

If this team is going to win a World Series this year, Schwarber needs to figure it out against left-handed pitchers. For that reason alone, he cannot be platooned.  Sure, he’s struggled against southpaws in his brief Major League career. However, that’s not strange as a left-handed hitter.

In his career to date, the former first-rounder carries a pretty notable split based on what type of pitcher he’s squared off against, as you can see below:

• v. RHP: .241/.350/.513
• v. LHP: .185/.302/.315

All but six of his 73 career home runs have come against right-handed pitchers.

How can you expect Schwarber to become an everyday player unless you let him work through it? The only way that happens is getting him in the lineup on a regular basis, regardless of what type of hurler is on the mound. In fact, he will continue to do exactly what he has done if nothing changes. Self-fulfilling prophecy, much?

If Maddon or Epstein need a reminder of this one – they don’t have to look very far. There’s a guy in the very same dugout who struggled with lefties his first few years in the same way as Schwarber.

Want to know the kicker? Former Cub Manager Rick Renteria is on record saying, about Rizzo adjusting to left-handed pitchers, “but you can’t do it unless you’re out there.”

Chicago Cubs: Just look down the bench to see what Schwarber could become

In Rizzo’s first taste of the Major Leagues in 2011, he slashed .172/.273/.345 with a 88 sOPS+ (you want a number above 100, ideally, to be better than league average against that particular split) in a small sample size of 33  plate appearances against southpaws. In year two, he slashed .208/.243/.356 for a 84 sOPS+ in 107  plate appearances. In his third year in the big leagues, 2013, Rizzo slashed .189/.282/.342 for a 93 sOPS+ in 216 plate appearances.

Notice the jump in number of plate appearances against lefties in that third year. Despite the atrocious numbers, Rizzo figured something out and made some adjustments. In his fourth season after those consistent at-bats against both righties and lefties, Rizzo put up a .300/.421/.507 slash line for a 152 sOPS+ in 171 PA. Would you look at that?

Schwarber’s first three big league seasons against left-handed pitchers (I won’t count 2016 because we all know he got hurt in the first series of the year) looked like this: in 2015, he slashed 143/.213/.268  for a 43 sOPS+ in a minuscule 61 PA. In 2017, he slashed .171/.306/.341 for a 90 sOPS+ in 98 plate appearances. Then last year, he slashed .224/.352/.303 for a 99 sOPS+ against lefties in 91 plate appearances.

In each of their respective first seasons, they were both bad, with Rizzo being better in limited plate appearances. In the next two seasons, however, Schwarber was actually slightly more productive than Rizzo. The main difference, though, is that Schwarber didn’t get twice as many plate appearances to work things out in that third season.

Now, I’m not saying that he indubitably would replicate Rizzo’s absurd growth and change against lefties from 2013 to 2014; but, it’s very possible between Schwarber’s instincts, approach and knowledge coupled with Rizzo’s advice that he could improve dramatically if given the same chance to adjust that his own teammate was given only a few years ago.

Chicago Cubs: Do we want to see this in October because of one day?

But, but, but… it’s just one day. That’s what some people will say. That’s what some people have said in response to squabbles over the Opening Day lineup sans Schwarber. And, that is true. I can’t deny it. However, don’t you think the Cubs wish they could have changed just one day at the end of the 2018 regular season?

Wouldn’t one day have made a difference in terms of how we viewed the success of last year? No one could say we choked away the division (we didn’t anyhow – the Brewers were just nuclear). No one could say we need a complete overhaul (that remains to be seen, I suppose, but we sure as heck didn’t overhaul anything this past offseason). Theo Epstein probably wouldn’t have given his now famous “production over potential speech.”

One day and one game mean a lot in baseball or any sport for that matter. And, while one day may not seem like a big deal in March, it is. If this mindset and philosophy continues (which it will), it means there will be other games where Schwarber sits. Therein lies the problem. It’s not just one day. There are many days. Many days where Kyle Schwarber, one of our best hitters, doesn’t start the game and get multiple at-bats (granted, he did get three at-bats on Opening Day, but that won’t happen very often in the same manner).

Chicago Cubs: Should Jason Heyward have sat on Opening Day?

Jason Heyward is an elite defender. He has five Gold Gloves and is a far superior outfielder than Schwarber, despite the fact that the latter was better both offensively and defensively last season per metrics (Heyward had a UZR/150 of 7.8 last season compared to Schwarber’s 14). UZR measures how many runs above average each defender was worth compared to others at his position and year). No one is arguing otherwise, despite the analytics.

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Because of Schwarber’s improvement in left field, if there is a player who should be platooned against starting left-handed pitching, maybe it should be the $184 million man in Heyward. While Heyward holds the advantage in average as compared to Schwarber when you analyze their numbers, that’s about all. By modern metrics and stats, Schwarber, despite his struggles, was far superior offensively last season to Heyward against left-handed starting pitchers. He’s also way more of a “presence” pitchers have to worry about.

Against left-handed starting pitchers in 2018, Heyward slashed .238/.304/.349 for an sOPS+ of 82. Schwarber’s slash was .195/.377/.390 with an sOPS+ of 115 (the higher the number, the better the hitter fared against that specific split for the season).

For comparison, Rizzo had an sOPS+ against left-handed starters of 117. So, despite the putrid batting average, Schwarber was basically the same production-wise as Rizzo last season against the guys he “isn’t good at hitting.”