Chicago Cubs look to replace Brian Duensing in the bullpen

Most took note of the Chicago Cubs sending Ian Happ to Triple-A Iowa. But the DFA of Brian Duensing could have a more immediate impact on the team.

Many were shocked when they saw that the Chicago Cubs’ Ian Happ would begin the year in Triple-A Iowa. That shocking development covered a less obvious one, as Brian Duensing was DFA ‘d (designated for assignment) on the same day. After an impressive first season with the Cubs in 2017 that earned him a two-year deal before last season, it’s been all downhill from there.

It’s been a combination of injuries (shoulder fatigue) mixed with declining results in just over a season. In 2018, Duensing saw his K/9 innings fall from 8.8 to 5.7, and his BB/9 jump from 2.6 to 6.9 from the previous season. That stat (a 0.83 SO/W) mixed with his HR/9 doubling from the year before spelled disaster.

The second half saw him pitch just 10 1/3 innings, posting a 10.45 ERA with a BAbip of .314. Shoulder fatigue was said to be the cause of it, but it appears that it hasn’t rectified itself. After a strong start to the spring, things have turned for Duensing as he’s allowed six runs in his last two appearances–recording just two outs in those previous two outings. His HR/9 is 2.6 this spring, and that is against an opponent quality of 8.3 (roughly figured, Triple-A quality).

With what Duensing is owed ($3.5 million is 2019), it’s possible he could make it through waivers and choose to take a minor-league assignment with the Cubs. But even then, he’s still going to start in Triple-A. So when we are looking at lefties to take his place, who are the candidates?

Chicago Cubs: Tim Collins

In a correlating move, the Cubs’ signed Tim Collins who was released by the Minnesota Twins on Friday. Collins pitched just 22 2/3 innings since 2014 when he was with the Kansas City Royals in the World Series. He missed the chance to pitch for them in the World Series that they won, and has suffered through two Tommy John surgeries since then.

From 2011-2014 with the Royals, Collins was their go-to lefty out of the bullpen. In 211 innings, he posted a 3.54 ERA, with an ERA+ of 115. His K/9 of 9.4 was impressive, although he did walk hitters at a 5.2 BB/9.

When healthy, Collins was a reliable left-handed option out of the pen. Last season, he posted a plus-4.00 ERA for the first time in his career. But this was after two surgeries, and his first action in the MLB since the 2014 World Series.

Collins signed a major league deal with the Cubs but will open the season in Triple-A. It might not be long before we see him on the MLB roster. But for the time being, he won’t be the guy filling in–at least not initially–for the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs: Randy Rosario

The Cubs could also slide in Randy Rosario into that role with Duensing gone. Rosario had a solid season in his first with the team, but in most cases seemed to be pitching above his pay grade. While he posted a 3.66 ERA, he appeared to be beating the metrics. Rosario had a strong DP% of 17 percent, even while allowing a line drive rate of 26 percent, per Baseball Reference.

His walk rate of 4.2 compared to his K/9 of 5.8 left him with just a SO/BB of 1.36. But when you’re getting a lot of double plays and keeping the ball in the park? You can stay ahead of the hitters. One of the other places that Rosario excelled was first-pitch strikes. He threw a strike on 58.5 percent of at-bats. That led to him allowing just four hits when being up 0-2.

This spring, it seems the metrics might be catching up to Rosario. In 8 1/3 innings, Rosario has allowed eight runs (seven earned), with a WHIP of 1.680. He’s striking more hitters out with a 9.7 K/9 but has only faced an opponent quality of 6.8 this spring (Double-A). To the untrained eye, Rosario seemed to get away with a lot last season, but the numbers were solid.

But Rosario, while placed in some high-leverage situation, wasn’t the first lefty called upon out of the bullpen. Could Joe Maddon be able to trust Rosario in that position?

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Ryan

Kyle Ryan is another one that could fit into the mold, but his MLB experience is minimal. He has spent four seasons with the Detroit Tigers, but only one where he came out of the bullpen, in 2016–and the numbers didn’t disappoint. In 2015, the Tigers used him as a starter in six games. In 56 games, he pitched 55 2/3 innings to a 3.07 ERA and an ERA+ of 139.

But while Ryan had a strong 2016, he was rarely tested. In his 56 appearances, he entered in in low-leverage situations in 36 of those games. That season, Ryan inherited 38 runners, allowing eight of them to score (21%). Generally, these guys are going to be called upon to get one or two hitters out, and that’s their job. Allowing over 20 percent to score isn’t going to be what Maddon is looking for.

Ryan didn’t see any time in the majors last season, spending the entire year at Iowa. His numbers weren’t bad, as he struck out 61 in 66 innings and allowed a WHIP of just 1.000. His K/9 was also is highest of his career–MLB or MiLB–with an 8.3.

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The most obvious choice, to me, is Xavier Cedeno. But since signing a minor-league deal in mid-February, he’s yet to throw a meaningful pitch is spring ball. He’s likely going to miss the opener, and might not return until the first or second week of April. That being said, he might have the most promising numbers of all the candidates.

Last season, between the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers, Cedeno pitched 33 1/3 innings with 34 strikeouts and a 2.43 ERA combined. In an eight-year career, he’s carried a 3.69 ERA with an ERA+ of 111. Last season, his ERA+ between both stops was 175.

Cedeno also saw a higher amount of high-leverage situations, which in my opinion, is what ‘LOOGYS’ are often put into. One thing to point out, of 21 inherited runners, seven crossed the plate (33%). Many of these were with the White Sox, who while turning the corner, weren’t a good team last year. So take those numbers with a grain of salt.

Once healthy, could Cedeno fill that void that Maddon will call upon often in 2019?