Chicago Cubs: Five reasons Kyle Schwarber will win the NL MVP

The Chicago Cubs Kyle Schwarber has always been a special player. The front office knew that and declined to trade him. Now that he’s improved his fielding, is an MVP in his future?

The Chicago Cubs Kyle Schwarber has shown before that he can be a foundational player and fabulous hitter for the team. He has also demonstrated the ability to adjust to setbacks, work extremely hard, and overcome just about anything. Given these characteristics and the improvements he made last year, Schwarber is primed for not just a good year, but an MVP kind of season.

We all know who Schwarber is. He’s the guy who hits balls on scoreboards. He’s the guy who massacres baseballs that end up in car windshields back behind the field. He’s the guy who misses an entire season and comes back to Willis Reed his way into our hearts by going 7-17 in the 2016 World Series and starting the rally that no Cub fan could ever forget.

Schwarber is also the guy who has pretty much always struggled against high fastballs, got sent down to the Minor Leagues after a failed attempt as a leadoff hitter in 2017, and looked like a butcher out in the outfield at Citi Field in the 2015 playoffs in front of a National audience.

So, where does that leave us with the seemingly mercurial Schwarber performance meter? Well, unbeknownst to even some die-hard Cubs’ fans,  Schwarber quietly put together a pretty darn good 3.2 WAR year in 2018, despite a disappointing end both on a personal level (he was having back issues down the stretch and struggled once coming back from those as well) and with the team.

He lost a ton of weight, showed up in the proverbial and legitimate “best shape of his life” last spring, and showed improved play in the outfield (he was, by many metrics, one of the best left-fielders in all of baseball) along with an elite 15.3% walk rate last season. Given what we’ve seen from him in the past and the potential he has, it’s not a stretch to expect another improvement in performance in 2019.

I’m going to go a step further, however, and say that Schwarber isn’t just going to improve on his 2018 campaign- he’s going to obliterate it.  2019 is going to be the year that all of baseball sees what kind of damage this guy can do on a consistent basis. Kyle Schwarber, buoyed by a strong lineup around him, a great approach, and the ability to hit balls as hard and far as anyone in baseball, will win the 2019 National League MVP. And here’s why:

Chicago Cubs: The big slugger looks to take the next step in 2019

Schwarber has been a golden boy of sorts for Cubs’ management since being drafted in 2014. Despite media and fan speculation for years about the need to trade Schwarber to the American League because he was only ever going to be a DH, the one-time-catcher-turned outfielder has supposedly been as untouchable as a player can be in trade talks with other teams.

Schwarber is only 26, he’s coming into his prime, and he’s got all the tools to be a great middle-of-the-order hitter in the Major Leagues. While it seems like Schwarber has been around for a while, he still has yet to record more than 510 plate appearances in any single season. In fact, Schwarber has only 1274 career plate appearances and 1086 career at-bats, basically two seasons’ worth. Through those 1086 career at-bats, Schwarber has 72 home runs, 163 RBI, and 183 runs thanks to his nearly 14% career walk rate.

For comparison, Anthony Rizzo‘s first three seasons yielded a similar 1211 PA/1071 AB. Except, Mr. Consistency only put up 39 HR, 137 RBI, 124 runs, and a walk rate under 11%. Detractors would point out that Rizzo was 24 after those numbers and Kyle Schwarber is already 26, but Schwarber missed the entire 2016 season after he tore up his knee in April of that year. So, while he may be two years older, there’s only a year difference in development based on those numbers. If Schwarber continues to trend anything like his fellow left-handed-hitting teammate, he will be a perennial MVP candidate, starting this season.

Chicago Cubs: Head down, drive it the other way

Schwarber has always been at his best when he hits balls to center and left field with authority.  While it seems like he is shifted against more than anyone else (and he’s actually 29th in the league in terms of % of time shifted against at 64.5%), he actually posted a .380 wOBA while dealing with the pesky shift in 2018, one of the highest wOBA amongst left-handed hitters who regularly see the shift.

When Schwarber decides to hit the ball with authority to all fields, he hits it over and through the shifting that most teams have opted to employ against him. He has also looked to slap balls the other way with two strikes and lay down bunts when the shortstop strays too far from that third-base line. The willingness to do those things and the fact that he’s in the same clubhouse as a guy like Rizzo (who made a deliberate adjustment with two strikes that has made him a formidable hitter), means he’s only going to get better going the other way, hitting with two strikes, and ultimately, beating the shift.

This spring, Schwarber has looked like the guy who came back from the minors in 2017 looking to drive the ball all over the field. He has been patient as always, has adjusted his stance to a lower, stronger crouch that allows him to sit back and drive balls with more authority (especially the other way), and has also looked to lay bunts down if no one is near the line. If Kyle Schwarber can be unaffected by the shift and hammer balls to all fields, doubles, triples, and home runs will follow. He will also pick up base hits just slapping balls through the left side of the infield when they put three defenders on the right side.

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber, not so hefty slugger?!?

Schwarber’s body has been on a roller coaster ride since 2016. Is he Babe Ruth, or is he a lean, mean, ball-shagging machine?

In 2016, Schwarber tore up his knee in the first series of the year in Arizona. After bestially rehabbing for the entire regular season, he miraculously came back to play, and play well, in the 2016 World Series.

What most people seem to forget, however, is that 2017 saw Schwarber start the season less than a year removed from that surgery. In coming back so quickly, and rehabbing the way he did, Schwarber may not have been physically ready for the grind of a 162 game season.

After being sent to the Minors in 2017 and hearing critics discuss his weaknesses in the field, Schwarber decided to get jacked and lose what seemed like 50 lbs. While that number might be hyperbole, the weight loss was glaring and noteworthy. Schwarber was faster and leaner in 2018, but it was his first year dealing with a different body.

Here we are in 2019, and Schwarber seems to be looking a bit more like his old self, or at least a healthy combination of 2015 and 2018. With his body healthy and, more importantly, his mind confident in that body, you can surely expect big things from the big(ger than 2018) guy.

Chicago Cubs: There is no better middle of the order in baseball than these guys

Boom. Boom. Boom. Lemme hear you say WAY OUT, WAY OUT. That’s not just a catchy paraphrase from 90s one-hit-wonders, The Outhere Brothers. It’s what you’ll hear and see when Kris Bryant, Rizzo, and Schwarber swing the bat in 2019. Add in 2018 N.L. MVP runner-up Javier Baez, Father Time’s nemesis Ben Zobrist, and bounce-back candidate Willson Contreras– you’ve got the makings of a seriously potent group of Major League hitters. If Jason Heyward and Albert Almora can even be average hitters, the lineup has the potential to score 800 runs.

Wherever Kyle Schwarber hits in the lineup, be it No. 2, 4, 5, or 6, he will have opportunities to do damage, and he will very rarely be pitched around. To have a monster year worthy of an MVP, it helps to have guys to drive in and then be able to go ahead and drive them in. With a lot of firepower in front of and behind him in the lineup, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers.

While Schwarber isn’t on many analysts’ or media personalities’ radars for 2019 National League MVP, it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the ability and the potential to make that happen.  The scary thing is, if all goes well, Schwarber might not be the only Cub vying for MVP honors, as the team has the potential to send four or five guys (including 2016 winner Bryant, Rizzo, 2018 runner-up Baez, and Contreras) into the running with great seasons.