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Chicago Cubs: A future chance at Harper or Machado

By Bill Rakosnik |
Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
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(Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
(Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

The Chicago Cubs probably aren’t going to sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado this offseason. However, that doesn’t mean that all hope of one of them being a Chicago Cub one day in the future is gone forever.

It is becoming increasingly likely that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will sign short contracts or contracts with early and possibly multiple opt-outs. The Chicago Cubs may be in a better position to sign one of them in a few years.

Last offseason former Cub Jake Arrieta signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. His contract is a complicated one that could potentially be a five-year deal. However, there are multiple opt-outs and option years in his contract. Arrieta could be a free agent again as early as after the 2021 season. That would be just three years into the deal.

J.D. Martinez also signed a complicated five-year deal last offseason. His contract with the Red Sox features three consecutive opt-outs after each of 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons.

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Yu Darvish can opt out of his six year deal with the Cubs after this upcoming season. However, I suspect that after the last two slow off seasons and Darvish’s disappointing 2018 season that even if he pitches well this year there is a very low chance that he opts out of his contract with the Cubs.

Just because a player has an opt-out doesn’t mean that they will exercise it. Jason Heyward and David Price both declined from opting out of their contracts at the beginning of this offseason.

Sometimes even when a player uses an opt-out, it doesn’t mean that he leaves his team. Clayton Kershaw opted out of the final two years of his contract and then agreed to a three-year contract extension with the Dodgers.

However, the possibility of a player opting out and leaving his team for another is not just hypothetical. After the 2015 season, Zack Greinke opted out of his contract with the Dodgers to sign a six-year deal with the Diamondbacks.

(Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
(Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Team might be in a better position in the future to sign Harper or Machado.

Theo Epstein recently clarified the position that Cubs have been in this offseason. He reiterated that Cubs fans should not be expecting a big, late free agent signing anywhere near the caliber of  Harper or Machado. Instead, he said that the Cubs, “have to be sort of creative and value-based.”

However, if Harper and Machado sign contracts similar to the ones Arrieta and Martinez signed late last offseason, then they may soon be free agents once again. Even teams such as the Rays might be considering the positive impact that a one year deal with Harper might have on their organization’s bottom line.

In a couple of years, Tyler Chatwood‘s contract will be off the books. Ben Zobrist only has one more year left on his contract. Veteran relief pitchers Brian Duensing and Brandon Kintzler maybe valuable contributors to this year’s bullpen or their salaries maybe dead money. Either way, they only have this season left on their current contracts.

Perhaps the Cubs will be able to sign some of their young players to contract extensions. In just the last few days Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have signed extensions with their teams. So there is a reason for increased hope that the Cubs might be able to extend some of their young players.

(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: There will never be an opportunity this good to sign Harper or Machado again

In a few years, the Cubs competitive window may begin to close. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber and Mike Montgomery are under team control for three more years. Kyle Hendricks and José Quintana are only under team control for two more seasons. Veterans such as Jon Lester may begin to decline in with age.

All of the players with opt-outs that we mentioned? Many played better before the opt-out than after. So signing free agents during their peak years of performance is essential. The Diamondbacks would rather have the Greinke that pitched for the Dodgers than the version that they signed. In a few years, even Harper and Machado are going to be older.

The reason Harper and Machado are still out there is that the free agent market has been depressed during the last two offseasons. Free agents are unexpectedly more affordable than they were just two years ago. Harper and Machado would have cost a team more before the new collective bargaining agreement. Players in their tier will likely cost more after this C.B.A. is torn up and a new one put in its place.

Next. Will recent extension affect young core?. dark

Due to the Cubs competitive window, the currently depressed market and the age of these players it would be better to get them now, but if it just isn’t possible due to budget it doesn’t mean that these players will never be Cubs

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