Chicago Cubs: Aces are wild for the 2019 rotation

With this long and uneventful offseason coming to a close, I can proudly tell you the Chicago Cubs pitchers and catchers have begun to report in Arizona, and while it seems the Northsiders offense is in question, one mainstay is the starting rotation.

Every team has its critics, and for the Chicago Cubs, the naysayers all say the Cubs rotation is old and won’t hold up. This could be why PECOTA predicts the Cubs will only win 82 games in 2019, perhaps?

They’re right about one thing. The rotation is getting up in age, but history says the rotation, at least at this point, should hold up.

After all, many thought Jon Lester would take a major step back in 2018. Well, outside of July, the southpaw put up solid numbers. He finished with an ERA below four, pitched 181 2/3 innings and had big-time performances when the Cubs needed it most. Lester has made at least 30 starts in 11 straight seasons. If that’s not consistency, I don’t know what is.

Cole Hamels proved to be a much bigger mid-season acquisition heading into the stretch run. In 76 innings with the Cubs, Hamels pitched lights out: a 2.36 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 24.3 percent strikeout percentage, 1.10 WHIP and a .223 opponents batting average. Not bad for a 35-year-old pitcher who pitched a total of 190 2/3 innings in 2018.

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Many believe Yu Darvish will be the cause and effect factor for the Cubs in 2019. If he’s not healthy, they will struggle. If he is healthy, wins are likely, but also the bullpen will remain intact. We know his story of 2018, coming off the Game 7 loss in the 2017 World Series. The countless headlines were suggesting he wasn’t hurt, how he was soft and how the Cubs clubhouse was against him. Thanks, A-Rod. The bottom line, Darvish has nowhere to go but up in 2019. If he can give the Cubs 30 starts, it would be a big boost for this staff.

Kyle Hendricks is emerging as the Cubs ace. After a sub-par first half, Hendricks returned to the form we’ve grown to know. After the All-Star break, he compiled a 2.84 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 78 strikeouts compared to 13 walks, 1.08 WHIP and .245 opponents batting average. As the youngest on the staff at 29, 2019 is primed to be his best season.

And finally, we have Jose Quintana. Hearing about Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease becoming the Chicago White Sox top prospects over the last year and a half is almost more annoying than Cubs Twitter freaking out on a daily basis, Quintana has been solid but not good enough for what the Cubs gave up in many fan’s eyes.

I understand that, but if Quintana is the squad’s No. 5 starter this season, that’s an excellent starter to have in that role. The southpaw just turned 30, and last season many experts wondered why his velocity dipped. Nonetheless, like Hendricks, Q put together an outstanding second half of 2018 and pitched well in big games for the Cubs, most notably Game 163 against Milwaukee, giving up just one run in five innings pitched.

So, yes, we’ve said it all offseason, health is essential for the Cubs going into 2019 but there are questions, which makes it understandable to why PECOTA gave the Cubs just 82 wins.

Will Lester finally start to fall off because of his age? His 2018 K/9 (7.38) did take a big hit compared to 2017 K/9 (8.97). His ground ball percentage did decrease from 46.2 percent to 37.7 percent. His 24 home runs given up were the third most of his career. There are signs that suggest he’s not going to be the Cubs ace in 2019.

Will Hamels maintain his dominance he’s seen return since coming to the Cubs? I understand the Texas Rangers play in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but we know how the ball flies out of Wrigley in the summer.

Hendricks has ace potential but also can be mashed fairly easily because his hardest pitch goes 89 mph, and in this era, it’s really slow. Can Quintana revive his velocity and figure out how to pitch into the sixth inning more consistently? Will Darvish stay healthy?

There’s a lot of questions for a team that already has a ton of questions with its position players. One thing is for sure, I’m willing to bet on this rotation more freely than the offense to this point.