Chicago Cubs: If Craig Kimbrel’s price plummets, is he worth a look?

Chicago Cubs: Does this team need a big-name closer?

In the Chicago Cubs’ two deepest postseason runs (2016 and 2017), they boasted some of the best closers in the game in Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis. Granted, there’s a pretty wide divide between these guys, but they both fell in the upper echelon in their respective craft.

Let’s look at the last four World Series champions.

In 2015, the Kansas City Royals rode their super pen to the Fall Classic, after falling short against the San Francisco Giants the year prior. The back-end trio of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland led them to the title – and all three put together outstanding performances. Holland finished 40 games for K.C. that year, pitching 11 times in the postseason and allowing just one earned run.

Of course, the Chicago Cubs acquired flamethrower Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees ahead of the deadline in 2016 and rode his left arm to a title. Following the trade, the southpaw posted a 1.01 ERA, appearing in 28 games. Of course, we all know the role he played come October.

The Houston Astros won the first title in franchise history in 2017 behind a tremendously talented young core. Ken Giles handled ninth-inning duties for Houston, making 63 appearances while pitching to a 178 ERA+, 2.39 FIP and 1.037 WHIP The 26-year-old struggled at times, but pulled it together for the home stretch late in the year.

And last, but certainly not least, the Boston Red Sox won their third title since the turn of the century in 2018 with a bullpen anchored by none other than Kimbrel himself.

Chicago Cubs: One of the best shows cracks in October

From 2012 to 2017, Craig Kimbrel notched at least 31 saves annually. Now, I know. That’s not an effective way to measure success. Fine. How about this?

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups
• Cubs: P.J. Higgins deserves to be in the lineup on a daily basis

During the said span, Kimbrel compiled a 1.97 ERA (and a near-identical 1.98 FIP), 0.908 WHIP, 4.9 H/9 and 14.6 K/9. He made 521 appearances, averaging 65 per year and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting on five separate occasions. Heading into 2019, he is baseball’s active saves leader and ranks seventh in WPA.

Last year, though, he wasn’t quite the lights-out presence we’ve come to expect. The right-hander’s 3.13 FIP marked the highest of his career, as was his 1.0 HR/9. He walked 4.5 batters per nine – and that was the second-worst mark he’s ever posted in a single season.

Things didn’t get better in October, with Kimbrel struggling throughout the entire postseason. He followed up an 11.57 ERA in the LDS with a 4.50 ERA showing in the ALCS and by allowing two runs in his four World Series appearances. In short, he wasn’t what Boston needed. Thankfully for Red Sox Nation, they got the job done regardless.

Chicago Cubs: Don’t expect to see Kimbrel with the Cubs

Since letting Chapman walk following the team’s 2016 championship run, Epstein has made his approach to ninth-inning guys pretty clear: buy on for pennies on the dollar and capitalize on buy-low guys.

When he traded former top prospect, Jorge Soler, to add Davis ahead of 2017, Epstein eyed a right-hander looking to re-establish his value. With Chicago, he did just that – finishing 56 games and playing a critical role in the team’s return to a third straight NLCS. Then, he packed his bags and jetted off to Colorado, inking an outlandish three-year, $52 million deal with the Rockies.

In replacing Davis, Epstein went after the brilliant, but oft-injured Brandon Morrow. That aptly describes his first year with the Cubs, where he pitched to a 1.47 ERA in the first half – before missing the rest of the season due to injury. But, where Davis got $52 million from Colorado, the Cubs added Morrow for a ‘measly’ $21 million.

Even if Craig Kimbrel’s market plummets and he settles for something close to Davis’ deal (which I personally find hard to believe, but with how this market has played out, you definitely can’t rule it out), the Cubs won’t push past the next looming luxury tax threshold to add a ninth-inning arm – even one as dominant as Craig Kimbrel.