Chicago Cubs: Plenty of big free agents still to come

If the Chicago Cubs miss out on this year’s big free agent class, there are a few great position players set to hit the open market in the years to come.

If the Chicago Cubs don’t sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado this offseason, it’s not the end of the world. I know you may think otherwise, but I’m here to tell you that you’re wrong. Nolan Arenado will be a free agent after the upcoming 2019 campaign. Arguably the greatest player of all-time, Mike Trout, is due to be a free agent after the 2020 season. Arenado and Trout are a couple of future free agents the front office might target in upcoming off seasons.

The decision to add Arenado to the Cubs will be a complicated one. The first issue is that Arenado is a third baseman. So if the Cubs sign him, Kris Bryant will have to move to the outfield full-time. Everything Bryant has said publicly about playing third base or the outfield has been positive and team-first. But you have to wonder if Bryant has a preference for where he plays in the field.

When the 2016 National League has played in the outfield he has played well defensively. In just under 800 innings Bryant has made only four errors in the outfield for a .971 fielding percentage. He has a strong enough arm that he can play right field. Bryant also has enough range that he can occasionally play center field if that is what the lineup needs. Joe Maddon almost started him in center field in a game last season.

Chicago Cubs: The ever-present worry over Coors Field

Arenado is the best defensive third baseman in the National League. He has won the Gold Glove Award for third base every year since he got called up to the major leagues. That’s six in a row including this last season. So if Arenado joined the Cubs they would have Gold Glovers at both corner infield spots, plus an elite defender in Javier Baez at one of the middle infield spots.

However, the thing that you have to be careful of with any free agent from the Colorado Rockies is what impact did playing half of their games in Coors field have on them. This time last year, the Cubs thought that Tyler Chatwood would be an even better pitcher after he got away from Denver’s thin air.

As teams consider DJ LeMahieu this offseason they are trying to evaluate how good of a hitter he might be in the future despite not having the benefit of playing in Coors Field.

Arenado has definitely benefited from playing his home games at Coors Field. His road splits should give us pause about his ability as a hitter without the benefit of the thin air of Colorado.

Chicago Cubs: Plenty of impact talent coming to the market

One of the things that makes Harper and Machado’s current free agency such a big deal is that they are hitting the open market at the ripe age of 26. Like Trout, Arenado will be a free agent at age 29. That means that part of a Trout or Arenado contract would be paying for their declining years, namely the back half of their 30s.

Arenado is as good a defensive third baseman as Machado. But he is older than the former Baltimore and Los Angeles standout. When Arenado’s splits away from Coors are factored in, Machado is easily the better player offensively.

Trout is older than Harper and is a true center fielder for now. The seven-time All-Star has been a better and more consistent hitter than Harper, despite the hype surrounding the slugging 2015 NL MVP. Even Trout’s worst years so far have still been MVP-quality. 

I’d still rather have Harper or Machado now than Arenado or even Trout in the future (sue me, okay). They are younger by a wide margin. Signing one of them will improve the team now. It will begin to help lengthen this competitive window. But if the Cubs don’t make a big addition this offseason there are other big free agents on the horizon.