Cubs Rumors: Would Bryce Harper accept a shorter-term contract?

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Buckle up. One of the latest Cubs rumors to come out of the Winter Meetings? Superstar Bryce Harper may be open to a shorter-term, high AAV deal.

The annual Winter Meetings are officially off and running this week in Sin City, and the main talk of the town is, of course, Bryce Harper and where he will ultimately land. Many teams are predicted to be serious players for Harper, and if the latest Cubs rumors are to be believed, the North Siders may be looking for a way to make it work financially with the slugger.

Many expect Harper to land a contract somewhere in the $400 million range, across a span of ten to twelve years. Teams such as the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers have been the main clubs linked to the young star.

As a potential longer shot landing spot, the Cubs could swoop in with an offer lucrative enough to sign Harper. Many signs over the last few months have raised the hopes of fans expected to him landing on the North Side. If the club can reach his preferred average annual value, what is stopping them from offering Harper a shorter-term, higher-AAV deal this winter?

Cubs rumors: How it could happen

A report from ESPN broke the news last month about how Bryce Harper turned down a reported 10-year, $300 million contract from the Washington Nationals at season’s end. After the report broke, a second report broke on Mark Lerner, the owner of the Nationals and what they expect moving forward.

“Well, when we met up with them and gave them the offer, we told them, ‘This is the best we can do.’ We went right to the finish line very quickly,’ Lerner said. “And we said, ‘If this is of interest to you, please come back to us, and we’ll see whether we can finish it up.’ But we just couldn’t afford to put more than that in and still be able to put a team together that had a chance to win the NL East or go farther than that.”

With that, it sounds like Harper’s Nationals career is over.

More from Cubbies Crib

The question remains now about how the Cubs could land Harper on a shorter-term contract. The average annual value of the Nationals offer came in at $30 million. As contract projections roll in, many expect Harper to land a deal somewhere in the $35 million to $40 million range annually. If teams are offering lengths of 10 years, at a minimum, the offer would sit at $350 million.

For the Cubs, the proposal could land in Boras’ hand for a shorter length and an increased AAV. Bringing to the table an 8-year offer would place Harper at 33 years of age at the last year. It would require a smaller monetary offer overall, while still guaranteeing an AAV closer to what Harper perceives he is worth.

The Cubs could offer Harper a larger AAV for the first few years of the contract to entice a deal get done, finishing up the full length of the contract with a smaller AAV on the back end. An 8-year contract at $300 million places a $37.5 million AAV over the length of the entire contract. The Cubs, on their end, could front-load the deal at $43 million AAV for the first three years of the contract, adding a club option following year three. The final five years then would cost the Cubs $34.2 million per year. Offering the club option could give the Cubs an insurance policy if something were to happen.

Cubs rumors: Should the Cubs make that commitment?

Bryce Harper is going to get paid this offseason, that much we know. How much he will get paid, and by who is a different story. Understanding the market limits many teams from being able to afford Harper’s services provides a better understanding of where he could go next.

If the Cubs are indeed gifted the opportunity to sign Harper on a shorter-term deal, still paying Harper what he wants, Theo Epstein should pull the trigger, no questions asked. The Cubs currently have Jon Lester, Jason Heyward, and Yu Darvish, on deals of at least $20 million. Cole Hamels is projected to earn $20 million as well in 2019 (although the team saved $7 million by trading Drew Smyly), while a few other players sit on the lower end.

On the positive, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are still in the varying stages of arbitration. All-Star backstop Willson Contreras is still in pre-arbitration. Many other players find themselves in arbitration as well. For the Cubs, the future could get murky with hammering down deals. However, with Harper on the table, that is future Theo’s problem.

Final thoughts
In 2012 the Denver Broncos signed Peyton Manning. To this day it still goes down as one of the most significant free agent signings in NFL history. Why am I telling you this? Because Bryce Harper may find himself in the history book as one of the best free agents of all time in MLB years down the road.

Next. Former Cub Miguel Montero officially retires from baseball. dark

Teams have waited for 2019. The free agent class is one of the best in recent memory. Epstein and the Cubs cannot afford to miss the boat on a player of Harper’s caliber. Mix in the fact that he is still just 26 years old, in the prime of his career, makes it that much easier to make the call. Harper is an investment and a worthy one at that.

In Theo We Trust.

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