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Chicago Cubs: The Cubs would be wise to bring back Justin Wilson
The Chicago Cubs have a number of questions concerning their bullpen this offseason, including what to do with free agent left-hander Justin Wilson.
Ahead of the 2017 non-waiver trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs made a move to acquire left-handed reliever Justin Wilson from the Detroit Tigers. Amidst a pennant race, the Cubs believed Wilson was the missing piece that could put their bullpen over the top. Chicago had good reason to believe they found their guy based on how Wilson was performing.
As a Tiger in the first half of the season, Wilson had served as the team’s primary closer, saving 13 games in 15 attempts. Wilson, one of the top arms available at the trade deadline, posted a 2.68 ERA and 55 strikeouts to go against just 16 walks. His 12.3 K/9 over that span was the highest of his career and miles ahead of his career-average of just 9.9.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, that kind of performance did not carry over for Wilson on the North Side. Following the midseason trade, Wilson appeared in 23 games out of the bullpen, totaling just 17 2/3 innings. His ERA skyrocketed to 5.09 and he walked 19 hitters while striking out just 25.
By the time the postseason arrived, Wilson found himself in Joe Maddon’s doghouse. The lefty made just one appearance in the postseason, pitching two-thirds of an inning in the NLDS against the Washington Nationals. When the NLCS rolled, around Wilson wasn’t even on the playoff roster, replaced by former Cubs closer Hector Rondon.
With all that said, Wilson really bounced back in 2018 to become one of the more reliable arms in the Cubs bullpen. On the year, he appeared in 71 games and pitched 54 2/3 innings. Wilson put up a solid 3.46 ERA, the best among the Cubs left-handed relievers.
He also posted the second-most strikeouts with 69 to go along with an 11.4 K/9 mark. However, as it had been in the past Wilson’s downfall was his walks. He led the Cubs with 33 walks and had a 5.4 BB/9 ratio.
Chicago Cubs: The ideal guy to take down lefties
Where Wilson really shined for the Cubs this season was in his matchups against left-handed batters. He was the Cubs’ best option, hands down, and, thus became their go-to guy. Against lefty hitters, he amassed 22 1/3 innings, facing 93 batters.
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Against these hitters, Wilson allowed a 1.61 ERA, surrendering a .188 opponent batting average. At times he dominated against lefties, striking out 32 batters on his way to a team-high 12.9 K/9 ratio. While he was dominant, there were times he lost his control, allowing 13 free passes to go along with a team-leading 5.2 walks per nine.
The Cubs didn’t have a whole lot of options throughout the season when it came to lefty versus lefty, which is why Wilson was called on so often. Brian Duensing was injured and wasn’t nearly the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Randy Rosario became a pleasant surprise throughout the season but didn’t dominate left-handers by any means. He faced 79 lefties, walked 10 batters and struck out 18, which accounted for a 1.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Both Jorge De La Rosa and Jaime Garcia became great tools for the Cubs down the stretch against left-handed batters. Neither of them allowed a run or a walk in lefty-lefty matchups in their 9 2/3 combined innings pitched. De La Rosa was much more dominant of the two, striking out six batters while Garcia failed to tally a single punch out.
Chicago Cubs: For the right price, Wilson makes sense
One main reason the Cubs need to bring Wilson back is there isn’t a whole lot of help available on the market, especially when looking at left-handed options. Andrew Miller and Zach Britton are the two biggest free agents available, both of whom have been linked to the Cubs in the past as potential trade targets. However, each of them have had their own issues and fair share of injuries to deal with over the last two seasons or so.
If the Cubs were to land either, Britton is the better fit. The former O’s closer is the younger of the two and looked healthier during the 2018 season. He is not an overpowering pitcher by any stretch, earning the majority of his outs via the ground ball, but he posted a respectable 3.10 ERA.
Miller really struggled to stay healthy last season, landing on the disabled list on two separate occasions. While dealing with injuries, Miller posted a 4.24 ERA and saw his K/9 rate drop significantly. In 2016, Miller had a career-high 14.89 K/9 while last season it dropped to just 11.91.
Aside from Miller and Britton the free agent market consists of Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez, Zach Duke or Jake Diekman. Sipp and Perez both had bounceback campaigns but are up there in age. As for Duke and Diekman, they both underperformed and had down seasons in comparison to their respective careers.
What will the Cubs do with the rotation this offseason?. dark. Next
Based on Wilson’s solid campaign and the options available via free agency for the Cubs, the easy decision is to bring the lefty back. Miller and Britton are both upgrades but I don’t think they are worth overspending for when Wilson will come at a much more reasonable price.
Other than those two, he is the best left-handed relief pitcher on the market and the Cubs would be smart to keep him on the North Side.