Chicago Cubs: Predicting how the postseason roster will shake out

The race for the National League Central is far from over. But, with the Chicago Cubs still in first place, it’s at least worth thinking about the postseason.

Obviously, a lot can happen between now and the October, but assuming the Chicago Cubs make the playoffs, here is a sneak peek at how that roster construction might look.

In the past, Joe Maddon has often gone with 14 position players and 11 pitchers, in part because of the type of series, four-man rotations and also because you do not really want some of those last bullpen guys in a meaningful playoff game. So, moving forward, I’m going with the premise that the Cubs will use this type of roster.

As of Sept. 1, we have 19 locks for the 25-man roster. That leaves 7 roster spots up for grabs this month, based on performance, injuries, and also the possibility that certain players come back 100% healthy and ready to contribute.

Chicago Cubs: A veteran-heavy starting rotation

On the hill, 11 pitchers will be broken down with four starters and starters relievers. The four starters are all locks as Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana will definitely be on the roster if healthy. The relievers, however, only have four shoo-ins as we head into September: right-handers Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and current starter, but postseason-bullpen-bound lefty Mike Montgomery.

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Again, you’ll notice a big name not on that list as Brandon Morrow is currently still on the DL, but will most definitely be on the roster if “healthy.” I say “healthy” because Morrow has already stated he is just going to have to pitch through his soreness/pain for the rest of this season and will more than likely be back at some point in September.

Assuming Morrow rounds out the locks, that leaves us with two more relievers to add and we only have Monty as a lefty out of the pen, which means Joe will probably want them both to be lefties. Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing (if healthy) might be the winners in the roster musical chairs, but if they falter or can’t go in September, you’re looking at Jorge De La Rosa and Randy Rosario as your last two lefties out of the pen. All told, Wilson is clearly the front-runner here.

Or, you could end up seeing Drew Smyly, who just threw for the first time since 2016 the other night and struck out the side on 13 pitches in South Bend. This would most definitely depend on his health and whether or not he looks good against Major League hitters when he is activated in September.

Chicago Cubs: September could help round things out

Jesse Chavez, Brandon Kintzler, James Norwood, Alec Mills, Luke Farrell, or possibly even Dillon Maples, would be the next set of options to add depending on September performance, but they’re all right-handed and you know Joe will want at least three lefties in the pen come October. If Joe decides, based on matchups in the NLDS, he could go with only two lefties out of the pen, it is possible Jesse Chavez could get the last bullpen spot, as he has been nothing short of a godsend for the Cubs since being acquired from the Texas Rangers.

Ultimately, if everyone (stays) and gets healthy, you’re looking at a Game 1 starting lineup (if a righty throws) of Contreras, Rizzo, Murphy, Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Heyward and Zobrist with either Lester or Hamels (I know, sacrilege!!!! But, have you seen his last six starts?) on the mound.

That would leave you Almora and Russell as late innings defensive replacements, as well as Happ, Bote, LaStella and Caratini off the bench however Joe wants to deploy them. Against a lefty, it’s very possible you could see Schwarber, Heyward, or even Murphy sit to get as many right-handed hitters in the lineup. (Not to mention, Almora kills lefties to a .336/.381/.467 clip and is the best center-fielder we have, so that will definitely happen).

Going with the aforementioned four-man rotation, that would leave you Strop, Cishek, Edwards, Morrow, Montgomery, Wilson, and my best guess at this time is Smyly over lefties De La Rosa/Rosario/Duensing and right-hander Chavez.

Chicago Cubs: Looking at a ‘final’ postseason roster 

Here’s how, in my estimation, things will shake out:

Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy, Javier Baez, David Bote, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Tommy La Stella, Victor Caratini, Kris Bryant * (just off the DL), Addison Russell* (just off the DL), Jason Heyward* (now on the DL)

Likely Postseason Pitchers 

Cole Hamels (L), Jon Lester (L), Kyle Hendricks (R), Jose Quintana (L), Mike Montgomery (L), Steve Cishek (R), Pedro Strop (R), Carl Edwards Jr. (R), Brandon Morrow (R), Justin Wilson (L), Drew Smyly (L) or Jesse Chavez (R) matchups

While we still have a long way to go until the promise land and crapshoot of the playoffs, if that’s the roster we’re working with, I like our chances of playing deep into October.