Chicago Cubs: Why Cole Hamels should start first playoff game

If the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the postseason, Cole Hamels is the clear choice to start the team’s first playoff game.

Cole Hamels has been lights out since the Chicago Cubs acquired him on July 27.

If the Cubs make the postseason, Hamels must be the team’s top starting pitcher. Really, the decision should be quite easy for manager Joe Maddon (though September could change things).

I won’t get too deep into Hamels’ success with the Cubs, but some of his numbers are worthy of note. Following his start Tuesday, the left-hander has a 0.69 ERA in six appearances with the Cubs. He has 38 strikeouts to just 11 walks.

The Cubs’ starting rotation has been the team’s Achilles heel for much of 2018. The rotation’s 3.88 first-half ERA left much to be desired, especially when considering the money spent in the offseason on Tyler Chatwood and Yu Darvish.

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Of course, Chatwood and Darvish have been completely underwhelming in 2018. Chatwood’s 93 walks (in just 101 2/3 innings) leads the MLB. His 5.22 ERA and 1.810 WHIP are also brutal as well.

Darvish did not appear in a game since May 20. The Cubs surely would like a healthy, dominant Darvish in their rotation, but he has been anything but that in 2018. In eight starts, the right-hander has a 4.95 ERA. Of course, we now know Chicago won’t see their right-hander again this season due to a stress reaction in his throwing arm.

Chatwood presumably will be left off the Cubs’ playoff roster(s), and Darvish is, by all indications, in the same boat. By process of elimination, that leaves Hamels, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, José Quintana and Mike Montgomery as possible starters.

One of Quintana and Montgomery will be the team’s fourth playoff starter and the other will be a reliever. Of course, this is all assuming the Cubs make it to the National League Division Series.

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Quintana has had an up-and-down 2018 season, holding a 4.33 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 25 starts. Those aren’t terrible for a fourth starter, but advanced statistics show Quintana gets worse as a game progresses.

According to Fangraphs, Quintana’s ERA when a lineup rolls around are as follows: first time through the order-3.02 ERA; second time through the order-3.79 ERA; third time through the order-8.20 ERA.

Quintana has been shaky in 2018, but especially the third time he faces a lineup. The Cubs need more than four or five innings from a starting pitcher leading their rotation. If it was not obvious already, Quintana is not that guy.

Montgomery has had a nice 2018 season, filling in admirably as a starting pitcher in Darvish’s absence. However, he has been a valuable long reliever for the team since arriving in 2016.

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In a five-game playoff series, one has to think Montgomery is destined for the bullpen. If Quintana struggles come the fourth or fifth inning, the Cubs could always put Montgomery in the game for at least a few innings, too.

With all of that being said, the only true choices for the Cubs’ top playoff starting pitcher are Hamels, Lester and Hendricks. And really, any of the three are good options for the team.

Lester has a career 2.55 ERA in the postseason, so the Cubs more or less know he will perform at a high-level in October. His 6.69 ERA in eight second half starts is worrisome, there is no doubting it.

Be that as it may, Lester has allowed zero, one and three runs in his last three starts, pitching into the sixth inning every time. One has to think the Cubs would be happy with such production in the playoffs.