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Chicago Cubs: Why winning the division is so important this season
As of right now, the Chicago Cubs postseason chances are very high. While getting in is the goal at the end of the day, doing it via division win is very important.
Entering the off-day Thursday, the Chicago Cubs had a 95.5 percent chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs. Right now that is the highest in the National League. In addition to that, they have a 78.6 percent chance of winning the division and a 17.3 percent odds of going in via Wild Card.
The odds are very in favor of them winning the division, which has remained consistent throughout the season as they came in as the favorites. Second place Milwaukee has a 71.5 percent chance of making the playoffs and 19.1 percent to win the division. Again, following the same season trends as the Brewers were picked by a number of people to contend for a Wild Card spot.
The Cubs have roughly two months left in the season, with eight games remaining against the Brewers who, entering Friday, were just two games back of the NL Central lead. Those eight games can ultimately decide the fate the division if one team dominates the other.
Chicago Cubs: Why winning the division makes all the difference.
Ultimately, winning the division is the ideal road to October. Chances are incredibly high they make the postseason, but the Cubs would really rather avoid the coin-flip Wild Card game. Clinching the central and going right to the NLDS is much easier to manage than having to worry about winning a single game to get there.
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Sure the Cubs did it in 2015, but that season the expectations were not high and they had a man in Jake Arrieta on the mound who was unbeatable that year.
There are plenty of young teams that are trying to get their first taste of the postseason, like the Cubs were in 2015, but this team in 2018 is way past that. Most veteran teams that have been contenders for several years would say they’d love to avoid the Wild Card game.
Sometimes the standings are cruel and teams with wins in the upper-90s are stuck playing in the Wild Card game.
This is a case where the Cubs currently have the NL’s best record and have been on top for quite some time. Not winning the central and settling for a Wild Card would mean failing to hang on to a lead in the central later in the season, not what we want to see happen.
Chicago Cubs: Evaluating scenarios and not tempting fate
Now would it mean doom if for some reason the Chicago Cubs ended up being a Wild Card team? Not necessarily. They could still easily win it with the talent they have, it just complicates things. Right now likely opponents would be the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks or Philadelphia Phillies.
A one-and-done scenario would probably see Jon Lester or Kyle Hendricks start. Both guys have had tremendous success in the postseason, but their inconsistent seasons this year would make it more of a coin-flip. Outside of regular match ups, odd things happen in baseball games. In this case, odd events that can end a season in the blink of an eye. Say a pitcher has a bad inning or the other team gets some lucky hits that fall in or a key error is made…that can be enough to decide the game.
dark. Next. Bryant, Darvish working toward their respective returns
Overall the Cubs have to play well down the stretch so they can win the NL Central. They ultimately control their own destiny, beating the Brewers and playing well in most series gets them back in October and away from a coin-flip Wild Card game.