Chicago Cubs: Dusting off our overly-optimistic 2019 crystal ball

Fast forward seven months. It’s early March, 2019. The Chicago Cubs are coming off a disappointing loss in their fourth-straight NL Championship Series appearance. What does the Cubs’ crystal ball show is in store for the team?

While this season still holds considerable promise for the Cubs, it’s never too early to look ahead. Okay, it is sometimes too early to look ahead. But, considering the angst with which so many view the 2018 season to date, perhaps taking out the crystal ball and looking beyond 2018 is a worthwhile catharsis.

A shot of perspective

Before digging in to the “what may be” scenario, a moment to reflect on what “is”. The Cubs have the best record in the National League. Without their best player, Kris Bryant, for a significant chunk of games. Without their most consistent hitter, Anthony Rizzo, producing at his standard rate of return. With starting pitching that rarely pitches into the sixth inning. With a bullpen many so-called experts say is a weakness. With no production of note from their key offseason acquisitions, Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood. Best. Record. In. The. National. League.

Many worry the sky is falling in Wrigleyville. It is not. This team is as good as we thought they’d be. More importantly, they’re that good for reasons we did not expect. Worst case, they are a playoff-bound contender that will need to be dealt with and with room to improve.

Best case scenario? Bryant, Rizzo, Darvish and Chatwood round into form and they are poised to raise a trophy for the second time in three seasons. Let’s collectively step back from the ledge, hope for the best, and enjoy the ride.

With that out of the way, it’s time to consider 2019.

Chicago Cubs: Change is in the air

While Chicago doesn’t stand to lose many of their key contributors – most are either under contract or arbitration eligible and fully controlled – the reality is the team has to consider the future as they navigate the 2018 offseason. Having young, controllable assets is certainly valuable. But that value is somewhat marginalized as their high performances add payroll through higher arb rewards.

Further complicating that math are the decisions facing players with expensive options. Starting pitchers Jose Quintana ($10.5M) and Cole Hamels ($20M) both have team options, as do relievers Pedro Strop ($6.25M) and Brandon Kintzler ($10M). Two other key relievers, Justin Wilson and Jesse Chavez, are free agents after 2018.

If you add it all up, assuming the team exercises all options, the Cubs could see a baseline payroll upwards of $230M. Suffice to say, that won’t happen. With that in mind, there is little doubt there will be some roster changes ahead of the 2019 season.

Knowing that change is coming, let’s break out the crystal ball and take a stab at what those changes may look like.

Chicago Cubs: The pitching staff gets a new ace

Theo Epstein loves Jon Lester and frankly, Jon has earned the right to get paid by the Cubs, even if he is beginning to show signs of diminishing returns. Kyle Hendricks is a Joe Maddon favorite and Joe has repeatedly proven through his statements that he is far less concerned about Hendrick’s up-and-down 2018 campaign than Cubs Nation is. He’ll be in the 2019 rotation.

Darvish – at $20 million-plus annually for five more seasons – is untradeable. Assuming he isn’t dealing with an as-yet undiagnosed arm issue (that would require surgery), he’s in the 2019 rotation. At just $10 million, Quintana’s option is very palatable for a starting pitcher of his upside.

This leaves four guys – Chatwood, Hamels, Mike Montgomery and Drew Smyly – to fill the one remaining starting slot. Hamels is a goner, the team will not carry a third twenty million dollar pitcher. Smyly will stay, but the team will not likely pin their hopes on his injury history, so his role is more likely one of a depth option at his $7 million price tag. Expect him to play the Monty role if Monty is not around.

Chicago Cubs: Are you ready for this?

Chatwood and Montgomery present plenty of promise. Not so much as starting options for Chicago, but rather as viable trade options. Monty’s three years of control and Chatwood’s cost controllability and raw stuff are both valuable assets.

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The crystal ball here is quite optimistic. Chatwood and Monty are packaged together with a pitching prospect and athletic shortstop Addison Russell and sent off to the Mets in return for none other than Noah Syndergaard. The Cubs get their new ace and the player that will serve as the bridge to the staff pre- and post-Lester.

Before you shoot this down as typical Cubs optimism, yes, the Mets held onto their arms at the deadline. But they’ve wavered in their commitment to 2019 –  saying they plan to visit trading their controllable assets in the offseason and would prefer to get MLB players – not prospects – in return.

They also have openly lamented that their infield lacks athleticism and needs to get better fielding their positions. Russell addresses those needs, plays a premium position, and is a controllable asset. The pitchers give them options that can step in day one and contribute. It isn’t as far-fetched as it may seem.

Chicago Cubs: Bryce not in the cards (but will be on the Cards)

Sometimes it’s easier to pull the Band Aid off all at once instead of prolonging the pain, so let’s make this one quick: Bryce Harper will not only spurn the Cubs’ overtures, but he will end up in St. Louis.

The Cards are undoubtedly going to make a loud splash as ’19 approaches and Bryce appreciates the history of the game enough to know that St. Louis will give him all the attention and love that he craves.

With a group of young pitchers to sell him on and the opportunity for him to step in as the unquestioned leader of the squad will be tough to turn down. As will the money St. Louis will throw at him. It will be an epic sum of money.

Chicago Cubs: Role players will play a huge role

With Harper out of the mix, the Cubs will make a series of down-roster moves to solidify their depth. It will all start with Tommy La Stella finally moving on, as the team won’t offer him arbitration and he will find a new home. This will open up the designated pinch-hitting role to Ben Zobrist, who will finish out his contract in Chicago as a part-time player.

Albert Almora will slide into the full time CF role and will finally be given a chance to play every day unchallenged. Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward reprise their roles as the starting left and right fielders, respectively.

Expect the Cubs to grab a speedy bench outfielder on the cheap to fill that role off the bench, and also expect a Daniel Descalso type of veteran to slide in as a utility player off the bench as well. Current utility infielder David Bote may also fill that latter role.

Chicago Cubs: End of the line for Ian Happ?

Two players who may not factor in, however, are Ian Happ and Victor Caratini. While both are obviously viable major leaguers who the Cubs would be happy to go to war with, both also carry tremendous upside as trade chips. Happ in particular will have four remaining years of control and is a player with multiple tools capable of playing multiple key positions defensively. Trading a player of Happ’s ability and upside would likely net the Cubs a solid pitching prospect that can be developed as well as a lock down reliever, two assets the Cubs just don’t have a whole lot of.

The crystal ball has Happ heading to Cincinnati, along with a low level prospect or two, in return for Rasiel Iglesias and a pitching prospect. Caratini stays put, but don’t be surprised if he is shipped off for an arm or two as well.

On the pitching side, the primary need will be a lefty reliever to slot in to replace Wilson, who as a free agent surely won’t be resigned. While there are some sexy options on the market – namely one Andrew Miller – the Cubs will look internally and use Randy Rosario as that lefty specialist going into ’19. Most of the other relievers stand pat, with Iglesias filling the slot opened by the team not exercising Strop’s option. Chavez gets re-signed. Cubs turn down Kintzler’s team option, but he exercises his $5M player option.

Chicago Cubs: Saving best for last

With Russell being (hypothetically) shipped off to New York, most would assume Javier Baez will slide over to shortstop. Wrong. The crystal ball tells a different, much more exciting story. Enter Manny Machado.

While the Cubs will make that push for Harper (and will fall short), Machado’s camp will likely play the waiting game and will let Harper set the market. He won’t be a fit in L.A., with Corey Seager coming back from injury and Turner already settled in as their third baseman. While Seager could move to second, expect Brian Dozier to re-sign and play the keystone in Chavez Ravine.  The Yankees and Red Sox will both be out on Machado. This leaves a limited audience for Manny, and the Cubs would be more than happy to roll out the red carpet for the titular shortstop.

Machado won’t come cheap. But he’s a great fit for the team and he won’t be able to turn down the opportunity to lead a team that proves to perennially compete for championship glory.