Chicago Cubs: What run differential tells us about trends of success

Projecting the rest of season

For the Cubs, their offense continues to flex its muscle. The team is now in a stretch in which they have scored 10+ runs in three of their last six contests. They scored eight runs in another of those games.

Using their run differential of +127 in 2017, let’s project them out to a final +130 differential by the end of the season. The team finished with 92 wins in 2017. In using the formula, the Cubs would finish the 2018 regular season at 94-68 which would expectedly win the division once again.

Projections can be fun, too, however. Due to the pace, the Cubs are on now, the club projects out to +216 through 148 games played. Let’s add another 15 runs to that total to project out the remaining 14 games, and it would give the Cubs a run differential of +231, only 21 runs shy of their 2016 mark.

To measure the season as a whole, we would begin our projection at 81 games, half of 162. Dividing the run differential by ten, it gives the team roughly between 22 and 23 more wins. By way of numbers, it would give them around between 103-104 wins. These numbers would suggest the Cubs are playing at their expected value.

Next: Cubs treading water away from Wrigley Field this season

Naturally, the 2016 season was an outlier. It may be difficult to project the Cubs to continue this torrid offensive banger they find themselves on, however, at the level, they are playing they continue to set themselves up nicely for another 90+ and maybe 100-win season once again.