Chicago Cubs: Secret to success is…leather?

Offense Among League’s Best

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Anthony Rizzo’s slow start notwithstanding, the 2018 Cubs have been somewhat of an offensive revelation. Through April, Chicago’s 5.20 runs per game ranks fifth in baseball.

The team is top ten in baseball in slugging percentage, on base percentage and, logically, combined OPS. Most interestingly, this success comes despite a remarkably shallow bit of home run production from the usual suspects. Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Addison Russell have combined for just four home runs through April.

It is a reasonable assumption to expect these lofty numbers to spike. Summer will usher in greener ivy, warmer temps, and that southerly breeze at Wrigley that usually translates to offensive production.

Still, it is astounding – and quite reassuring – to see the team produce offensive numbers like this. Ranking among the league leaders while playing a plurality of their games in cold weather and not yet having their best hitters at their best is a positive development.

Offense, on the whole, hasn’t been a catalyst for success or failure. To the contrary, it has been steady for much of the early season, win or lose.

Pitching Better of Late, But Never a Problem

Cubs pitchers have earned passing grades thus far as well, despite arguments to the contrary. While nobody can pretend that the team has delivered to the lofty expectations some had for the team’s starting unit, overall the team ERA of 3.46 is good for sixth in all of baseball. The team has collectively walked far too many and struck out fewer than most (26^th and 18^th in the league respectively). But to offset this, they are fifth in baseball in hits allowed per game and have a minuscule home run per game rate against (0.83, fourth best in baseball).

Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana both have ERAs over 5.00, Darvish and Tyler Chatwood carry WHIP rates over 1.40 (league average is around 1.20), and Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks have given up nearly a home run a start. While the bullpen has been dominant at times, Justin Wilson, Eddie Butler, and Mike Montgomery have all struggled at times and they ‘pen collectively still struggles to minimize walks allowed. These aren’t positive numbers.

This substandard “as-is” performance still places the team among the league’s best pitching staffs, statistically speaking. There is undeniably room to build on this success and to get better, but it would be short-sighted to assume it is pitching that has undermined sustained team success.

Recipe for Success

The case has been made that both offense and pitching have not been terribly off target. So the question remains: what factor most consistently governs Cubs on-the-field performance?

In a word, defense.

Let’s start with the obvious. It’s no secret that Albert Almora’s insertion into centerfield dramatically increased the team’s defensive efficiency. His glove work has been otherworldly. Even looking past his ever-growing highlight reel of running, diving, and leaping catches, analytically he is arguably one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball thus far. He covers more ground than all but two outfielders, and he combines athleticism with a strong, accurate throwing arm.

Perennial defensive stalwarts Rizzo and Jason Heyward have been their usual Gold Glove selves. Addison Russell continues to prove himself as one of the very best defensive shortstops in all of baseball. He’ssecond only to Cleveland’s Lindor in defensive wins above replacement at his position to this point in 2018. The effervescent Javier Baez has been his usual self as well; breathtakingly adroit in the field but prone to errors triggered by throwing from crazy angles after chasing down balls he had no business getting to. We’ll take that with Javy…it’s part of his charm.

At catcher, Contreras is as good as it gets, although his propensity to missile balls at infielders can rub a guy the wrong way from time to time. Bryant and Kyle Schwarber have been the weak links defensively, but both have started to come around of late. Apart from a forgettable play or two, neither have been complete disasters.

Defense Wins Championships

The most telling fact about the Cubs early season defensive performance can be found in the numbers. Through April 21, Chicago was 9-9. When considering balls put into play, opponents were batting .320 and slugging .512 in that span. This performance ranked in the middle of the pack over those 18 games. Since – a stretch of seven wins in eight games – opponents are batting a minuscule .215 on balls put into play. They are slugging an equally anemic .336 in those games. The Cubs lead the league in both categories during that stretch.

This stark contrast in results translates directly to team wins. Consider this: Cubs pitchers aren’t striking opponents out at a particularly high rate so far in 2018. This staff is pitching to contact, so if the defense covers ground and stops runners from taking extra bases, it is clear the wins will follow.

Next: Edwards becoming a pattern for success

Simply put, when the defense plays well, the team wins. When they do not, they lose. Pitching, batting, advanced stats – none of that factors into their won-loss record more than defense. The past week of excellent baseball has proven that point.

The 2018 Chicago Cubs can hit as well as any team in the league and have as solid a stable of arms as you’ll find in baseball. But make no mistake, the book on the Cubs 2018 season will be bound in leather.